He said the 2020 polls, when Bersatu won 11 of 18 seats contested, could not be used as the benchmark as the political environment in Sabah was vastly different then.
“I think 18 seats is a bit too much,” Chin told FMT. “I think most people would say that Bersatu is a spent force in Sabah, and that most of its winnable candidates have already moved on to GRS or other political parties.”
If PN was lucky, they might win three or four seats, “but there is no way they can win 11 seats again”, added Chin, who is a professor at the University of Tasmania.
In 2020, PN worked with Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and Barisan Nasional then to take on the ruling Warisan-Pakatan Harapan alliance.
However, PH, Umno, GRS and Warisan are now allies in the federal government, while GRS and PH form the Sabah state government, and BN and Warisan sit in the opposition.
Last week, PN deputy chairman Hamzah Zainudin said the coalition was aiming to contest at least 18 of the 73 state seats in the coming election.
Another analyst, Romzi Ationg of Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said PN must work with Sabah parties for the polls while focusing on local issues rather than national topics to appeal to Sabahans.
He asaid PN must “carefully consider” the local sentiments, especially when it comes to slogans and candidates.
However, Chin said almost every party was holding discussions with one another on forming electoral alliances “as is often the case with Sabah”.
He said it was apparent that no one party would have sufficient support to form the state government on its own. “Everyone is looking for allies and this can shift within just a few hours. What is most likely is that we’ll see PH going with GRS.”
Chin said bigwigs like Sabah Umno chief Bung Moktar Radin and Bersatu vice-president Ronald Kiandee are likely to be safe since they were household names with an established presence in Sabah.
“They have been around for a very long time, so they are their own personal brand. It doesn’t matter whether Bung is a member of a local party or a national party. If he wins, it’s because he’s Bung Moktar, not because he’s a member of Umno.”