Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said PH would have more overlapping constituencies with GRS as the latter had several non-Muslim based components “with competitive potential”.
He said the three-coalition alliance proposal floated by Sabah Umno deputy chief Abdul Rahman Dahlan was similar to BN’s approach in the 1974 general election, the first time BN fielded candidates after replacing the Alliance.
BN, led by then prime minister Abdul Razak Hussein, gathered PAS, Gerakan and the People’s Progressive Party on board as the coalition swept the lion’s share of seats.
In present-day Sabah, an amicable distribution of seats would need to be achieved if the alliance of PH, BN and GRS is to work, Oh said.
However, he still expects indirect clashes to occur in some seats.
“There are bound to be independent candidates sponsored by supposedly-friendly parties to stage upsets in seats not allocated to them, which could reduce votes from their own allies,” he told FMT.
Seat allocations ‘a big issue’
Universiti Malaya analyst Awang Azman Pawi said it was a tall order for PH, BN and GRS to reach a satisfactory distribution of seats.
“It is anticipated that this will be a big issue, especially if all parties demand to contest in strategic areas. This could then lead to ‘friendly’ contests between the allies,” he said.
Seat clashes among electoral allies have been a consistent feature in Sabah’s elections. At the 2020 state polls, BN, Bersatu, Parti Bersatu Sabah and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku, among others, contested as the GRS alliance.
However, seat clashes erupted between the electoral allies in at least 11 seats, among BN, Bersatu, STAR and PBS.
Analysts had said such clashes would split the grand coalition’s votes, working out in favour of their rivals. GRS went on to win the state election, with its chairman Hajiji Noor appointed chief minister.
Recently, BN and GRS separately said they would work with PH in the upcoming Sabah polls, but PH’s Sabah component, Upko, said the coalition had yet to finalise its alliances for the state election.
Awang Azman believes PH should opt to work with BN instead of GRS, as the latter’s strength has yet to be tested at the polls despite Hajiji being chief minister.
Hajiji and 11 others were elected on a Sabah Bersatu ticket in the 2020 polls. He led an exodus of Sabah Bersatu leaders and members after the 15th general election, before taking over Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah.
Warisan’s role
Awang Azman said BN would provide PH with Bumiputera support, but he also suggested that they expand their cooperation to include Warisan, which has maintained strong support in Sabah’s east coast.
“PH needs to consider the extent of the local influence of their potential partners, their social and economic influence, as well as their ability to support the agenda of reforms which PH seeks to implement in Sabah.”
On the other hand, Oh said, PH should simultaneously hold talks with GRS and BN on a possible cooperation, with the goal of defending its existing seats while seeking to field candidates in other non-Muslim majority areas.
“(PH should) then compare and contrast the offers from both sides to see which is more palatable,” he said, adding that PH’s top priority should be ensuring it remained part of the state government.
The state election will be held next year. Previously, Hajiji was reported to have said that he could call for the elections before the current term of the state legislative assembly ends next September.