Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia said the development could lead to apathy among voters, particularly Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters who might feel that the coalition had strayed from the principles of reformasi.

“I doubt they would be willing to vote for Perikatan Nasional (PN),” she told FMT.

“The Malay voters might be comfortable with voting for PN as they’ve already rejected Barisan Nasional (BN), but others may feel uncomfortable with PN.”

However, she said this would not necessarily translate into support for a third force or a political entity with no track record.

“I think our voters are quite pragmatic and realistic. At the end of the day, they want people who can do the work.

“So if a person has helped improve their constituency or even things at the national level, that matters quite a lot,” she said.

The notion of a third force gained momentum after Muda’s withdrawal from the unity government in September 2023. The youth-based party won just one seat at the 15th general election (GE15) in 2022.

Talk of a third force regained traction on social media after the FTPB announced last Friday that Najib’s prison term and fine had been commuted.

His 12-year jail term was reduced to six, while his fine of RM210 million was cut to RM50 million.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania also questioned the odds of voters pivoting towards a third force, describing Malaysia’s two-party system as a major hurdle.

“In the last round (GE15), there were four big groups fighting: PH, BN, PN, and the Borneo bloc (Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah),” he said.

“After the election results, we ended up with two big groups: PH-BN and PN. So it would be very, very difficult for a third force to emerge.”

GE15 ended in a hung parliament, with no single party securing a clear majority to form a new government.

The current unity government was established after PH joined forces with BN, GPS and GRS, with the support of MPs from Warisan and Parti Bangsa Malaysia, among others.

Chin also attributed much of the talk about a third force to temporary anger over Najib’s reduced sentence and fine.

“The outrage will die down very quickly,” he said.

“People are reacting on the spur of the moment, so I wouldn’t take this very seriously.”