Speaking on his weekly “Keluar Sekejap” podcast, Khairy said his forecasts were based on Barisan Nasional supporters switching their votes to PN instead of to PH.

PN is composed of PAS, Gerakan and Bersatu, a party largely based on breakaway Umno members, while PH comprises Umno’s former adversaries, PKR, DAP and Amanah.

Khairy said the switch of BN votes had been a trend seen at the recent state assembly elections in six states earlier this month.

In Pulai, he said the 52,403 total votes for BN and PN at the general election last November were still fewer than the 64,900 won by PH. The three coalitions had fought the general election separately, but BN and PH joined forces to form the federal government after failing to secure a parliamentary majority on their own.

The same vote transfer from BN to PN in Simpang Jeram would lead to a PN victory, he said.

In the 2022 Johor elections, PH won 8,749 votes while BN and PN won 6,062 and 6,350 votes respectively. “If we take into account 70% to 80% (vote) transferability from BN to PN, it is going to be a close (contest),” said Khairy.

Three candidates are contesting in both Pulai and Simpang Jeram. In Pulai, it is Suhaizan Kaiat (PH), against Zulkifli Jaafar (PN) and independent candidate Samsudin Fauzi while in Simpang Jeram, it is Nazri Abdul Rahman (PH) against Dr Mazri Yahya (PN) and independent candidate S Jeganathan.