Alleged controversies have come to the fore, with Sanusi facing suits and filing a suit against PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution Ismail over allegations made on the campaign trail.
But as Kedahans go to the polls tomorrow, PN, which has been dependent on Malay-Muslim sentiments and Sanusi’s popularity, believes it can snatch a comfortable victory by winning 33 of the 36 seats up for grabs.
On the other hand, PH-BN is said to be aiming to win 19 seats to give it the simple majority needed to form the next state government.
A PN source said the coalition’s confidence is based on its solid showing in the 15th general election (GE15), where it won 14 of the 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah. PH won its only seat in Sungai Petani.
But political analyst Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia believes PN cannot be too comfortable, as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s “aura” could boost the chances of PH-BN at the polls.
With Anwar headlining multiple campaign programmes over several days in Kedah, Mazlan said the prime minister has been warmly received by local residents, with thousands attending one of his events in Sik.
“PH-BN’s chances of winning are 50-50. If they do win, they will have a majority of one or two seats,” he said, adding that the rare earth elements (REE) theft claims and other controversies linked to Sanusi could affect PN’s support among fence-sitters.
Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Rusdi Omar also gave PH-BN a 50-50 chance of wresting Kedah from PN, and said their odds would improve if they can woo the support of most of the neutral voters by polling day.
“However, they would only have a simple majority,” he said. “Tonight (Friday) will be the defining night for the results of the Kedah polls, as the unity coalition’s grand finale ceramah will feature Anwar. From there, we’ll see if Kedah will remain under PAS or otherwise.”
The analysts said PH-BN had good odds of winning the Bakar Arang, Kota Darul Aman, Sidam and Kulim seats, which have a large percentage of non-Malay voters. They also stand a chance at winning in Derga, Pedu, Kota Siputeh, Bukit Selambau, Lunas and Alor Mengkudu.
One major obstacle could be the Umno grassroots’ rejection of BN’s cooperation with DAP, with some planning to vote for PN or boycott the election altogether.
For one Kedah Umno member who had been with the party for more than 30 years, working with DAP after all these years of enmity was a step too far for BN.
“I love Umno, but I cannot accept my party working with DAP. So, for this state election, I may cast my ballot for PN or I may not vote at all,” said Nasir Abdul.