Straight fights would be a rarity, said Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara in a comment on PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli’s prediction that PKR and Pakatan Harapan candidates could survive one-on-ones with Barisan Nasional or Perikatan Nasional in contests for 27 so-called “marginal seats”.

Azmi also said Gerakan Tanah Air and Warisan would be vying for most of the marginal seats as well and would be gunning for Malay votes.

On Monday, Rafizi said PH had a good chance of securing 30% of Malay support in Malay-majority areas.

He also factored in more than 80% non-Malay support and a voter turnout of more than 75%. Twenty out of the 27 seats are currently occupied by PKR.

However, Azmi told FMT that PH might struggle to win over the pro-BN Malay electorate in marginal areas. He claimed that voters were unhappy with the coalition’s performance during its 22 months in power.

He also said voter turnout for GE15 was expected to be poor, similar to the turnout during the Johor election, despite the eligibility to vote that was recently given to people aged 18 to 20.

Another analyst, Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya, told FMT he believed PH would win more Malay support if GE15 was held next year.

He said this would give the coalition ample opportunities to make inroads among Malay voters in the marginal areas through initiatives such as Rafizi’s “Ayuh Malaysia” campaign.

He said BN would be at an advantage if the polls were held this year.

Referring to Rafizi’s proposal for an “online referendum” to get the public to oppose having GE15 during the monsoon season, Awang Azman said this, if successful, would give PH time to reach out to Malay voters.