Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the turnout would most likely not exceed the historical average of 60% for by-elections.
He added that it would take a very prominent figure, such as the replacement for the late Sarawak chief minister Adenan Satem for the Tanjung Datu by-election, to boost the voter turnout.
“(But) I would expect the voter turnout for Balakong and Seri Setia to exceed that of Sungai Kandis, owing to a rather long campaigning period of 21 days to draw voters to come out and vote,” he told FMT when contacted.
In the Sungai Kandis by-election on Aug 4, the voter turnout was 49.4%, down from the 85% turnout recorded on May 9. There are 51,217 registered voters in Sungai Kandis.
PKR’s Mohd Zawawi Ahmad Mughni got 15,423 votes, defeating Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Lokman Noor Adam who obtained 9,585 votes. Independent candidate K Murthy meanwhile got only 97 votes.
Awang had been asked to comment on the possibility of a similarly low voter turnout in the two upcoming by-elections.
He said Pakatan Harapan (PH) had the advantage in Balakong and Seri Setia as they were both PH strongholds.
“On top of that, the state and central government are both under PH now. This could hamper BN’s movement, as it is not yet seen as a potent opposition as the Sungai Kandis by-election has shown.
“There is also the fact that BN is not very firm in its cooperation with PAS. It is still reluctant and shy to declare any long-term plans for cooperation.
“It will take a while for BN and PAS to be a truly effective opposition.”
Awang added that holding the by-elections concurrently would be good for both PH and BN in their preparations for the 21-day campaign period.
The Seri Setia and Balakong by-elections will be held simultaneously on Sept 8, with nomination day on Aug 18 for both constituencies.
The Seri Setia seat fell vacant after its assemblyman, Shaharuddin Badaruddin, died of colon cancer on Aug 2.
In the May 9 general election, Shaharuddin garnered 29,250 votes to win the Seri Setia seat.
The Balakong by-election meanwhile was triggered by the death of its incumbent Eddie Ng Tien Chee in an accident on July 20.
In the 14th general election, Ng retained the seat with 41,768 votes.