Instead, Wong Chin Huat of Penang Institute foresees Umno’s demise in the event of a PH “civil war”, as talented politicians in Umno might defect to join the stronger PH faction, if supporters of Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Anwar Ibrahim and Mohamed Azmin Ali fought over the transition of power.

He and independent analyst Kamarul Zaman Yusoff were both agreed on “civil war” as the only limiting factor but dismissed a prediction by Umno politician Annuar Musa that PH would not last its term.

PH may implode and split, Wong said, but Gabungan Parti Sarawak and many Umno MPs might side with the stronger faction, he said.

“Umno would not stand to gain from possible PH infighting. Instead, the infighting will trigger crossovers of Umno lawmakers and only expedite Umno’s demise.

“In fact, PH’s infighting may happen only after Umno lawmakers’ exodus as an increase of PH’s parliamentary majority would be likely to drive some PH warlords to train their guns inward,” he said.

Independent political analyst, Kamarul, known to be a PH critic in the past, agreed that infighting would cause problems.

However, even if the coalition broke down, a new government would still be headed by a PH component party, as BN lacked enough clout.

“For BN to be able to have a say, it needs to have more than half of 112 seats, which it does not have,” he said.

He said Umno and its allies simply had no chance to return to power without regaining some support from East Malaysia and non-Malay votes.

Such a dim prospect would drive talented politicians into leaving Umno and joining PH, especially in solidly-PH states on the west coast of the peninsula, Wong said.

On Tuesday, Umno secretary-general Annuar Musa, speaking in the Dewan Rakyat, had speculated that the PH government would not last its term, going by the experience of countries in which long-dominant ruling parties had been brought down at elections.

Annuar, who is MP for Ketereh, had said that India’s Janata Party fell apart three years after bringing down the Congress Party in 1977.

“Will the PH government suffer the same fate?” he said and predicted that PH would not be able to finish its term leading to a change of government.

Wong noted, however, that Umno had become progressively much weaker after suffering losses in 2008, compared to the Congress party’s collapse in 1977.

PH won’t last full term, it’s a world trend, says Annuar Musa