According to a ground survey by pollster Merdeka Center, this was when some traditional BN voters – mostly Malays – shifted support to either Pakatan Harapan (PH) or PAS.
Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian told a forum on the general election on Monday evening that the issue of leadership credibility also began to gain traction.
Malays began to listen to PH chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad and were influenced by former BN stalwarts such as Daim Zainuddin, Rafidah Aziz, Rais Yatim and Syed Hamid Albar who had voiced support for PH, with Daim and Rafidah speaking at PH rallies.
The Straits Times (ST) quoted Ibrahim as saying: “Beyond the issues we know, it’s the leadership factor. The charismatic leader in the form of Dr Mahathir galvanised people and he brought out all his old friends, Cabinet members.”
The Merdeka Center survey found that Malay voters supporting credible leadership jumped by 11 percentage points during the campaign period. However, perhaps surprisingly, those preferring a clean government dropped by 17 percentage points.
“You can see a big jump in terms of people looking at credible leadership, and this is the Dr Mahathir effect,” said Ibrahim.
This was largely because Malay voters began losing even more confidence in Najib’s leadership over allegations of corruption involving 1MDB and anger over the goods and services tax.
The survey found that Malay voters, especially those in rural hinterlands and Felda areas, began leaning towards PH after Mahathir’s nationwide tour of rallies.
Of the 54 Felda wards, PH and PAS more than tripled their wins to 26 from the 2013 general election, according to the ST report.
In Putrajaya, the country’s administrative capital, where over 90% of the voters are Malays and civil servants, support for BN also eroded, though the former ruling coalition retained the seat. Only half voted for BN compared with 69% in the 2013 polls, the report added.
However, Ibrahim noted that the bulk of Malay voters were still with Umno and PAS.
“The combined share of PAS and Umno with respect to Malay votes is much bigger than PH’s share. Together they have two-thirds of the Malay votes,” ST quoted him as saying.
Ibrahim told the forum that Islam remained a strong factor among Malays, but that PH did not yet have a strong Islamic personality.
He suggested that PH allow a bigger role for Nik Omar Nik Aziz, the son of PAS’ revered late spiritual leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat. Nik Omar stood as a PH candidate for the Chempaka state seat in Kelantan, but lost.
At a ceramah in Shah Alam during the campaign period, Nik Omar said he carried his father’s legacy, in rebutting PAS’ claims that he was a prodigal son.
“Why did I choose PH? Because I am confident that the approach brought by PH is similar to that brought by the late Tok Guru,” he had said.