Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute senior fellow Cassey Lee said this would have an impact in the upcoming general election. He added that non-urban constituencies with relatively lower household incomes would be a key battleground.
Lee also found that constituencies that changed hands between the last two elections – from BN to non-BN seats – tended to experience a larger increase in median income, compared with those that remained under the helm of BN.
Today Online reported Lee as saying the widening median income gap between these two camps was likely to “further entrench urban support for non-BN parties”. However, he added that BN’s electoral arsenal – such as “lavish” cash payments unveiled in its manifesto and calling a weekday polling date – would “dilute” the “urban advantages” held by non-BN parties.
Lee used data from household income surveys published by Malaysia’s Department of Statistics for his analysis. According to Today Online, he found that all parliamentary constituencies had seen an increase in median household income during the three years following Malaysia’s last election in May 2013. However, the gap in median income between BN- and opposition-run constituencies widened by about 23%, from RM1,137 in 2014 to RM1,401 in 2016.
The higher changes in household income occurred mostly in non-BN constituencies. For instance, Selangor’s Gombak district and Permatang Puah in Penang, both run by PKR, saw median household incomes go up by 19% and 14.7% – absolute increases of RM1,263 and RM664, respectively – between 2014 and 2016.
In comparison, the report said, the BN-run Sembrong district in Johor saw a hike of just 2.7%, up from RM3,832 to RM3,935 over the same period.
In the Pekan district in Pahang, Lee found the median household income had gone up by 13.6%, from RM3,321 in 2014 to RM3,774 in 2016. Prime Minister Najib Razak is Pekan MP.
The Today Online report said based on 2014 figures, opposition-run constituencies had an average population density of about 1.8 million people per sq km, more than five times that of a BN-run constituency (330,000 people per sq km).
After analysing the income levels of urban and non-urban seats, Lee concluded that the focus of the battle for votes would be in non-urban constituencies with relatively low median incomes.
Among the factors that will help BN is the passing of new electoral boundaries that “reduce the share of seats for more urban constituencies” and “giving disproportionate weight to rural constituencies, which tend to back BN”.
Also, Lee said, the “lavish payments” disbursed via the 1Malaysia People’s Aid (BR1M) scheme for low-income households was likely to have an impact on constituencies with lower median incomes.
In addition, the mid-week polling day is likely to “suppress the turnout of voters from urban constituencies, as compared to the rural districts”, further benefitting BN, according to Lee.
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