Barisan Nasional (BN) has won in Gambir in all three general elections since the state seat was carved out under the Ledang parliamentary constituency in 2004.

But academic Md Akbal Abdullah from Universiti Tun Hussein Onn said the choice of MIC’s M Asojan Muniyandy to represent the Malay-majority seat could work in favour of Muhyiddin, more than any other issue.

“There are no development issues in Gambir. The constituency is far more developed than Muar,” he told FMT.

“The only reason the constituents would want a change in their assemblyman would be their rejection of the MIC incumbent.”

Some 54% of voters in Gambir are Malay.

In 2004, Asojan won with a majority of some 6,100 votes. His majority was drastically reduced in 2008, when he won by just 2,463 votes.

In the last election, Asojan managed to scrape through by some 300 votes, when he was pitted against PAS big gun Mahfodz Mohamed.

Although PAS suffered in Gambir after the party’s split in 2015 which saw the emergence of Amanah, Akbal said PPBM should not take support from the PAS splinter for granted.

He said there could be protest votes from Amanah supporters who are not happy with the party being sidelined in the state.

“This group of people feel fed up but are too embarrassed to return to PAS. There is a strong likelihood that they will support Umno (instead),” he said.

Muhyiddin, who leads PH in Johor, began his political career as a federal lawmaker in Pagoh, where he served from 1978 to 1986.

He then moved to the state seat of Bukit Serampang, which he held during his tenure as menteri besar from 1986 to 1995.

Muhyiddin returned to Pagoh and held the seat for five terms, from 1995 until now.

Even then, Akbal said, Muhyiddin should work to woo the hardcore Umno supporters.

“These people are still Umno supporters and they feel that Muhyiddin has abandoned them. His challenge now will be to deal with these sentiments,” he said.

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