A three-corner fight for the seat is on the cards, with Umno defending it against PAS and Pakatan Harapan, which is likely to field a PPBM candidate.

According to Kedah Amanah chairman Ismail Salleh, it will be hard for PAS to win.

Ismail should know because he was the PAS candidate who lost to Umno’s Othman Aziz in the contest for the seat in GE13.

He noted that PAS secured 46% of the votes, but said it got that much because it was then a member of the opposition coalition.

“Those were Pakatan Rakyat votes,” he said. “If it was just PAS votes alone, it would only have been 35%. And that was before Amanah was formed.

“Today, I feel the votes for PAS would be around 25%. In a three-corner fight, PAS will definitely not win.”

If Ismail is right, Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan will be fighting for 75% of the votes. He said he believed PH had a slight edge over BN, “about 51-49”.

According to him, former menteri besar Mukhriz Mahathir’s membership in PPBM is one of the factors working in Pakatan’s favour.

Mukhriz won the Jerlun seat in the 12th general election and Ismail said he remained popular in the area.

In fact, he added, his loss in 2013 could have been partly due to the voters’ positive feelings towards Mukhriz, who was then still with Umno. He recalled that BN, during the campaign for GE13, promised to make Mukhriz the menteri besar of the state.

He also said Pakatan could, in addition, bank on the popularity of Mukhriz’s father, former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, who is now the opposition coalition’s chairman.