But Tanjong Piai was also “safe” from a different kind of tsunami: the political tsunami that struck Malaysia in the 2008 general election, ending decades of Barisan Nasional (BN) and Umno’s domination in Parliament.
BN still won comfortably, even during the 2008 “tsunami”. Its candidate from MCA had defeated the Malay candidate from DAP, with a majority of more than 12,000 votes.
Tanjong Piai is one of the constituencies that flipped the stereotypes of DAP and BN.
DAP placing a Malay candidate is not a novelty here, where there is an almost equal distribution of Malay and Chinese voters. It’s a strategy employed by DAP during many elections here, hoping to defeat BN by getting the best of both: its Chinese vote bank with their loyalty to DAP, and the Malay voters who have yet to shed their age-old sentiments against DAP.
For the last two general elections, the DAP, frequently referred to as a Chinese party, placed a Malay candidate, while BN has been placing candidates from its Chinese partner MCA.
But clearly, party loyalty overrides all others in this southernmost coastal constituency in Johor.
This could be seen when Chinese voters here still supported the rocket; and Malay voters still voted for the familiar symbol of the scales.
That was the case even in 2013. When Gelang Patah became the political graveyard for Johor’s ex-MB, Abdul Ghani Osman, DAP still failed to loosen BN’s chokehold on Tanjong Piai.
Mahdzir Ibrahim, the DAP candidate who was defeated by MCA in the 2013 general election, is confident that his party can still win the seat if there is a 15% swing of Malay voters.
This, he told FMT, did not happen five years ago, leading to his defeat.
This time, however, the Malay candidate to be placed against BN will not be from DAP, but from PPBM, the predominantly Malay party which is part of Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Mahdzir believes that the upcoming battle will be very different and challenging, and says there is a “50-50” chance for DAP this time.
“If PPBM can attract 15% of Malay voters to support them, God willing, we can win,” he said.
“It’s not a big problem with Chinese voters in Tanjong Piai who will continue supporting PH.”
PPBM has been given the lion share of seats by PH in Johor at the next elections.
Aside from Tanjong Piai, PPBM will also stand in Pagoh, Mersing, Tenggara, Sri Gading, Pengerang, Pontian, Muar, Simpang Renggam and Kota Tinggi.
Most of these seats are Umno strongholds in Malay-majority areas, and include Felda settlements.
In the last elections, Wee Jeck Seng of MCA received 25,038 votes, defeating Mahdzir with a 5,457-vote majority, a much smaller majority than he enjoyed when BN won in 2008.
PH has still not announced which PPBM candidate will be contesting, but Mahdzir gave a hint:
“If I’m not mistaken, he’s a doctor at a clinic,” he said, adding that DAP will give its full support to any PPBM candidate.
Mahdzir said PH’s focus in Tanjong Piai is the Malay votes as well as diehard Umno supporters.
He is also confident that the influence of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who now leads PH, lives on in Tanjong Piai.
“With DAP before, our chances were 40-60. Now they have become 50-50.”
Tanjong Piai is still considered a rural area, unlike Gelang Patah or Kluang, and Mahdzir admits that it is still a big hurdle for PH.
Meanwhile, Wee rejects the notion that his two previous victories were due to Malay voters.
He said, the votes of all communities matter to him, adding that it was his hard work which ensured BN’s victory.
“This is politics,” Wee, who will contest for BN again at the next polls, told FMT. “People know who does the work and who doesn’t.”