Although acknowledging that the exercise could not be stopped, Liew said the move was a “double-edged sword” which could backfire if assumptions do not meet the mark.
“These seats have been redelineated according to assumptions that voters will vote based on racial lines, where Malays will continue to vote where they used to vote and Chinese will do the same, as with Indians,” he said.
However, if there was a sudden swing in Malay votes, this would spell trouble for the ruling coalition, he added.
“Seats like Mengkibol now see an increase in Chinese voters because they want to pad up Malay voters for the Mahkota seat. This exercise in this context will benefit the Mengkibol seat.
“But even BN is slowly learning this: that they could be at risk of losing certain seats due to the fact that current developments in a certain constituency may not be aligned to what was originally proposed,” he said.
“Did you notice that they have pulled back on the new seats they created in Sabah?
“The reason they gave was that those extra seats would create infighting. But logic tells you that when people have more things to play with and share, they will be happier,” he said.
According to Liew, the real reason was that half of the 13 seats created had a significant number of Bajau voters, and the Bajau paramount leader was Shafie Apdal.
“If you check the seats, half of them are in the Sabah east coast, and they are Shafie’s territory.
“So, redelineation is a two-edged sword. It could be good and it could be bad. Once your assumption does not hit the mark, or is no longer in sync with latest developments, you are gone,” he said.
Former Umno vice-president Shafie is now Parti Warisan Sabah president and currently mobilising Sabahans against the state Umno.
If the redelineation exercise is approved without amendments, and assuming that previous voting trends persist in the 14th general election (GE14), two of DAP’s seats in Johor could be badly affected.
The two seats are Perling (formerly Pengkalan Rinting) and Pekan Nenas.
In addition, Liew said, DAP could lose another three seats to BN (Johor Jaya, Tangkak and Bekok).
Post-redelineation, it is speculated that DAP’s majority vote in these three seats will be reduced to a razor-thin margin (less than 5%), putting these seats in danger.
Liew said that Bukit Batu, the only PKR state seat in Johor, would be badly affected as its 4,015 margin would be reduced to just 1,000, post-redelineation.
It is also understood that Parit Yaani, the state seat held by incumbent Aminolhuda Hassan, the Amanah Johor chief, will also be in danger.
The redelineation exercise is expected to ensure that a large polling district with almost 2,000 voters will be reassigned to the neighbouring state seat of Parit Raja (a safe seat for BN), which will cause the 1,200 majority to be reduced to about 400.
“But again, the only way for the opposition to win is to win with a wave. Without a wave we won’t get anywhere.
“If only 3% of Malay voters swing (across the board), we can forget about it. If it is a major swing, it will swing to an extent where civil servants signal they want to see change.
“BN cannot deny these possibilities. If you talk to civil servants, they are very unhappy,” Liew said.
He added that this might or might not happen.
“My question is always this – you can dismiss what I say, but I put my head on the chopping board to fight each general election based on my assumptions, and so far I have won two rounds.
“When I went to Penang they said it was difficult; when I came to Johor they said I would lose but I have been a MP for five years here,” he said.