Fifteen insurgents, more than half of whom are IS affiliates, recently joined the ongoing peace process in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar.
They include eight former IS fighters, including a commander, and seven Taliban militants including their leader.
At home, meanwhile, long-time insurgent group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has improved ties with the Philippine government as both sides pave the way for a new autonomous political entity in Mindanao through the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) bill.
Pawel Wójcik, an analyst focusing on Southeast Asian terrorism issues, told FMT that Afghan and Filipino jihadi groups were different in some areas.
“Some Pashtuns from Afghanistan and Pakistan change their jihadi factions a lot, depending on financial income, morale and ground reality.
“Sometimes, they give up their weapons and reconcile with the government because that’s relatively easy to do, and it’s even easier to reverse and rejoin the fight against the government.
“Of course, the reality gets more extreme and we can already see that in the increase in the activities of the so-called Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in big Afghan cities.”
On the other hand, Wójcik said, it was harder to give up the fight where there was the so-called foreign legion.
“The foreigners in ISKP consisting of mainly Uzbeks, Tajiks, Pakistanis, Turkmen, Arabs, Uyghurs and so on are dedicated to fighting to the end,” he said.
“We could compare it to the Philippines where IS has changed the terror reality in the south.
“There have been more regional influences that have surpassed the activities of the MILF and Indonesian terror group Jemaah Islamiyah, which used to cooperate but have been much more separated according to their ethnic groups.”
The Malaysian and Indonesian connections
Foreign fighters in southern Philippines, especially in last year’s five-month battle in Marawi city between the government and IS-affiliated groups, are believed to comprise mainly Indonesian and Malaysians.
FMT previously reported that some 80 Indonesians and Malaysians were believed to have taken part in the Marawi siege laid by the Abu Sayyaf and Maute groups.
It was also reported in November that Malaysians were believed to be among 120 fighters grouped together in central Maguindanao some two weeks before the end of the Marawi conflict.
Philippine authorities and the MILF are currently embroiled in guerrilla conflict with the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), another pro-IS group, which has displaced thousands of residents in Maguindanao.
Wójcik believes the presence of foreign fighters changes the dynamics in southern Philippines which previously saw only ethnic Moros involved in decades-long insurgencies.
“If there is a majority of Moro ethnic groups, there would be a much higher chance to reconcile with the government.
“But if IS factions’ structure becomes more diverse, the reconciliation is less likely to happen as more extreme and coherent jihadi views influence the groups and radicalise them even more.
“It’s been a process since 2014/2015 when Isnilon Hapilon started to gather regional jihadists for the Marawi siege,” Wójcik said, referring to the IS emir-designate for Southeast Asia who was killed during the Marawi clashes.
“IS makes it coherent, harder to split and dissolve.”
Another factor that makes reconciliation with the Philippine government unlikely is the lack of good options in post-insurgency life.
“In Afghanistan, you can become a warlord, politician, businessman – basically an important person – even while having a harsh past,” Wójcik said.
“In southern Philippines, a former jihadi is less likely to reorganise his life, though there are rare cases in Manila where they cooperate with the police to create de-radicalisation programmes.
“These people have no bright and visible future, especially with no sign of the BBL bill being passed, which makes it harder for Muslims to self-govern in the southern Philippine provinces.”
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