This follows the failure of the Islamic State (IS) to create its so called Southeast Asian caliphate in the southern Philippine city of Marawi recently.
After the authorities retook Marawi last month, analysts had warned about IS going into insurgency or guerilla warfare tactics in the region, a mainstay even when they were still fighting as a proto-state in Iraq and Syria.
“Barricade-style attacks are when gunmen go in and take over a building,” Zachary Abuza, a professor at the Washington-based National War College, told FMT.
“They would draw out the conflict to gain media coverage with hostages. They will be fighting to the bitter end, like the attack in Mumbai.
“After the incursion of militants from the so-called Sulu Sultanate in southern Philippines, Malaysian officials have put a lot of resources into Sabah’s security.
“But they need to be prepared for these barricade-style attacks. Think Butig, not Marawi.”
Butig town, in the Philippine province of Lanao del Sur, like Marawi, was the scene of a barricade-style attack carried out by the Maute militant group, which was also responsible for the five-month Marawi clash.
The pro-IS group first raided the patrol base of the 51st Infantry Battalion of the Philippine Army in the town in February 2016. Three troops and 20 members of the group were killed in the clashes.
In November that same year, the Mautes attacked the town again but the military retook it in five days, before the group laid siege on Marawi in May this year.
On Jan 14, 2016, nine militants staged a barricade-style attack at a Starbucks cafe in central Jakarta, in which, two civilians and five attackers were killed during the two-hour standoff.
“The attack in Jakarta should not have surprised anyone. This type of barricade-style attack has been seen from Mumbai to Paris,” Abuza wrote in an article published by The Diplomat a day after the attack.
“With low technical requisites and a high probability of spreading fear and garnering media attention, it has been the weapon of choice, including in Southeast Asia.”
There have been a number of barricade-style hostage-taking actions by IS-inspired terrorists in Europe, the most spectacular of which, was the November 2015 attacks that left 129 dead in Paris.
On June 30, 2015, a Malaysian court convicted a man and his son for fighting with IS and planning terrorist incidents at home.
“But it was not a wave of bombings they were plotting, but rather the kidnapping of politicians,” wrote Abuza.
“While hostage taking, executions and barricade-style attacks garner less concern from security services than bombings, this is potentially an important development at both the tactical and strategic levels for Southeast Asian militants.
“If we are to understand the real impact of IS on Southeast Asian militancy, it is this.”
Abuza also said that despite the concern caused by returning IS fighters from Iraq and Syria and revitalising of terror networks in Southeast Asia by the terror group, there has been very little use of barricade-style attacks as a tactic by Southeast Asian militant groups.
“That should be expected to change, with the success of IS, the proliferation of their ideology, and return of veterans from Syria (and Iraq) over the coming few years.”
Meanwhile, Abuza told FMT that few places were “as permissive” for big-scale attacks as Marawi city.
“Marawi had an almost 90% Muslim population (in the Catholic-majority Philippines).
“It was also near territory previously controlled by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) where authorities had no intelligence on,” he said, referring to a former rebel group that has since laid down arms in a peace pact with the Philippine government.
“They had no idea 1,000 men and enough guns and ammonia were being smuggled in. I don’t see something on such a scale happening again soon.”
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