Associate Professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi, a lecturer at the University of Malaya, based his conclusion on the polling day atmosphere and the hard work of the BN campaign machinery from nomination day up to the last minute.
The BN’s two candidates, Mastura Mohd Yazid in Kuala Kangsar and Budiman Mohd Zohdi in Sungai Besar can now make arrangements to take their seats in Parliament, he said, if the turnout of Chinese voters was low.
The voter turnout figure, at the close of polling, appeared unlikely to reach the 75 percent forecast by the Election Commission (EC).
“As I see it, if the turnout of Chinese voters is low, this means that BN has a huge chance of winning, adding to the BN campaign machinery working hard and having a specific target at the polling districts.
“This means that BN works more specifically. For each polling district, there is always an ‘adopted family’ from outside to campaign,” he told FMT.
The same confidence was expressed by a Universiti Utara Malaysia political analyst, Associate Professor Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani.
He said that voters who did not turn up were made of young people who were seen as being able to contribute to the votes for the opposition.
“I think that if the percentage of voters who turn up is low it will give an advantage to BN. Outside voters are mostly made up of young Chinese voters, adding that BN is now able to pull the blank voters which support them to return to vote.
“I foresee that BN will win with a slight majority in Sungai Besar. However, Amanah could give a surprise in Kuala Kangsar. However, in my opinion, so far in Kuala Kangsar, BN can still win if the percentage of voter turnout is low,” he told FMT.
However, Associate Professor Sivamurugan Pandian, a political analyst with Universti Sains Malaysia, said that should BN not win in the by-election, between the other two major contenders, Amanah is seen as having more of a chance.
He said that BN had the potential to defend the seats in both constituencies unless extraordinary measures were taken at the last minute to influence voters.