A three-month rally in the currency could come to a halt when FTSE Russell announces a decision on whether it’ll retain ringgit bonds in its World Government Bond Index. A lesser risk is also brewing in the form of an expected overnight policy rate (OPR) cut from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).

The ringgit’s surprising strength in the face of months of political turmoil has been a vote of confidence for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin who is looking to revive spending to pull the economy out of its biggest slump since 1998.

If Malaysian bonds are removed from FTSE’s index, debt inflows could dry up, depriving the currency of a key source of support.

Like most of its Asian peers, the ringgit has benefited from a weak dollar and robust demand for higher-yielding debt. It has gained more than 3% since the start of July to outperform all but one of its Asian peers.

The ringgit bullishly breached resistance at its March high against the greenback, and may head toward RM4.05 to the US dollar before year-end. The currency traded at RM4.1475 last Friday.

But what happens from here would depend much on FTSE’s decision which is due Sept 24. Goldman Sachs Group Inc said last year outflows could reach US$6 billion (RM24.8 billion) should the nation be dropped.

“We continue to see a higher probability of status quo, that is, no change in classification and weights,” MUFG Bank Ltd analysts led by Derek Halpenny wrote in a report last week, referring to the FTSE decision.

“This means that foreign investors may continue to buy Malaysian sovereign bonds, particularly as real yields remain the highest in the region albeit at a declining trend.”

Investors will also be watching BNM’s policy meeting on Thursday, with four of 14 economists in a Bloomberg survey expecting a 25-basis point (bps) cut. The remaining 10 see no change.

At its last review on July 7, the central bank said it would “continue to utilise its policy levers as appropriate” to support growth, fueling speculation of more easing.