Stockpiles surged almost 10% from a month earlier to 2.23 million tonnes in July, a fifth month of gains, the median of 12 estimates in the poll of plantation executives, traders and analysts showed.

Estimates of higher supplies in the Southeast Asian nation, coupled with sluggish demand from overseas buyers, could weigh on benchmark prices at a time of the high production cycle, which typically peaks in October.

Still, a brighter outlook for purchases from top buyer India ahead of local festivals, as well as robust biodiesel consumption in Indonesia, has cushioned prices recently.

Benchmark palm oil futures closed 0.4% higher at RM4,245 a tonne in Kuala Lumpur on Friday.

That followed an increase of more than 6% in July – the biggest monthly jump since February.

Crude palm oil production last month rose 8.3% to 1.83 million tonnes, the highest level in 11 months, the survey showed.

That compared with a decline of 4.5% in June. Exports increased 3.2%, according to the poll.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will publish its monthly data on Aug 11.

“Stockpiles are expected to rise due to a jump in Malaysian production and lower domestic consumption in July,” said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group.

“Still, a level above 2 million tonnes during the peak production season may not be too ‘burdensome to prices’, especially when Indonesian palm oil supplies are tight because of high blending rates with petroleum,” he said.

More from the survey:

Stockpile estimates ranged between 2.09 million and 2.49 million tonnes, while production was seen between 1.7 million and 1.87 million tonnes.

Export forecasts were between 1.15 million tonnes and 1.45 million tonnes.

Imports were seen at 50,000 tonnes, below 70,015 tonnes in June.

Local consumption was between 250,000 tonnes and 450,000 tonnes.