That surplus could grow by a further 400,000 bpd if Opec+ extends its unwinding of output cuts, and fails to rein in overproduction against quotas, the Paris-based agency said.

The IEA revised down its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 bpd to around 1 million bpd, with growth driven largely by Asia, specifically China’s petrochemical industry.

It added that demand for the last quarter of 2024 (Q4 2024) and the first quarter of this year (Q1 2025) had come in below expectations amid “an unusually uncertain macroeconomic climate”.

“New US tariffs, combined with escalating retaliatory measures, tilted macro risks to the downside.

“Recent oil demand data have underwhelmed, and growth estimates for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 have been marginally downgraded,” IEA said.