The Russian embassy in Bangui called the work of a local artist that also features President Faustin-Archange Touadera and CAR military officers “a sign of our common victory over chaos and instability”.

The colourful mural in the bustling capital could be seen as a comment on the importance of the Russian military presence for the government of 68-year-old Touadera, tipped to be re-elected in the polls on Sunday.

The resource-rich former French colony remains the last bastion of the paramilitary group Wagner, which has established itself as one of the CAR government’s main security partners in exchange for lucrative contracts to mine gold and diamonds.

Sergei Eledinov, a retired Russian military officer and expert on African security, said Wagner forces had helped improve security in the CAR.

“The CAR was, in fact, the only successful positive case,” Eledinov told AFP, referring to Russia’s military presence in Africa.

“The security situation has improved, stability has been achieved, roads have become safer, there are fewer attacks,” said the Senegal-based founder of Convoy Africa, a consultancy which advises Russian and foreign companies.

“It would not be true to say that everyone is happy. But if we talk about the process as a whole, then of course the situation is improving,” Eledinov said.

After Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash in 2023 following a short-lived mutiny against Moscow, the Russian defence ministry has sought to replace Wagner in Africa and coordinate security operations through an umbrella group known as the Africa Corps.

However, unlike in countries such as Mali where the Africa Corps took over, Russian private military contractors in the CAR have not come under control of the defence ministry.

Improved security

“They have failed to convince Touadera to give up Wagner in the CAR,” a European military source told AFP, referring to Russian authorities.

Wagner has been paid in mining concessions, which the source said suited Touadera well. “If he accepts the Africa Corps, he has to pay in cash,” the source added.

Deployed in 2018 at the request of Touadera to strengthen a ramshackle military, Wagner’s fighters have played a key role in ensuring stability in the struggling strategically-located country whose resources also include uranium and timber.

While pockets of violence remain, particularly in the east and northwest, the Russians have helped drive armed groups out of major cities.

Wagner was instrumental in 2020 when Touadera was last re-elected in a vote marred by allegations of fraud and an uprising by six rebel groups.

The attempt to overthrow the government was pushed back thanks to the intervention of the Rwandan army and the Russian mercenaries.

The Russians have also worked to ensure security in the runup to the Sunday polls.

The Officers’ Union for International Security (OUIS), which US officials describe as a Wagner front company in the CAR, has sought to present itself as a responsible security partner and has regularly published Telegram posts about everything from assisting local residents to disarming militants.

Half of Russian contractors serving in the country have fought in Ukraine, including Dmitry Podolsky, Touadera’s security adviser, who has lost both legs and an arm.

While Moscow has sought to play up the popularity of the mercenaries, human rights campaigners and the opposition have accused them of committing widespread rights abuses in the country.

The Russian embassy in Bangui did not respond to a request for comment.

‘Tensions’

Last month, Touadera said talks with Moscow over Russia’s military presence were underway but denied he was under pressure to switch to the Africa Corps.

“Why do you speak of pressure?” he told France 24 television, pointing to “friendship and brotherhood” between the two countries.

Touadera declined to provide details of the talks. “That would be discourteous towards the Russian Federation,” he said.

Analysts said that Wagner’s departure would pose a problem for the CAR government.

“Wagner is better established there, with solid economic activities and a security record that is perceived as positive,” said Charles Bouessel, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.

“The authorities fear that the Africa Corps will be less proactive militarily, as we have seen in Mali,” Bouessel said.

Paul Crescent Beninga, executive director of the Central African Centre for Geopolitical Research and Analysis, said the mooted handover between Wagner and the Africa Corps “has created tensions”.

“But we hope for a smooth resolution,” he added.

Eledinov said he did not believe that Moscow would rush to dismantle a structure that has proved “successful”.

“I think that in the near future, they are unlikely to break it up,” Eledinov said.