The European Commission spelt out Kyiv’s needs in a paper circulated to member states as the 27-nation bloc debates whether to use frozen Russian assets to fund a new loan to plug Ukraine’s looming budget black holes.
“The scale of Ukraine’s financing gap is significant,” commission chief Ursula von der Leyen wrote in a letter accompanying the paper seen by AFP, before outlining financing options and urging states to “rapidly” choose a way forward.
Citing International Monetary Fund projections based on Russia’s war ending by the end of next year, Brussels said Kyiv’s assistance needs would reach over €70 billion in 2026 and €64 billion in 2027.
Ukraine can independently provide for only about half of its military needs for next year – worth a total of €103 billion – the paper said.
That leaves €52 billion in defence support and another €20 billion in macro-financial assistance – for a total of €72 billion – for allies to foot, the commission wrote.
The task of finding the money falls largely on the EU as, under President Donald Trump, the US has cut off funding to Ukraine.
The commission has put forward a plan to use frozen Russian central bank assets to generate a €140 billion “reparations loan” for Ukraine.
But that has faced opposition from Belgium – where the bulk of the money is held – which fears it could face legal reprisals from Moscow.
Avoid ‘paralysis’
In the paper the EU executive listed two alternative options.
The first is for member states to underwrite grants to Ukraine and use wiggle room in the bloc’s central budget to back those, while the second is to jointly borrow the money.
“Clearly, there are no easy options. But this reflects both the scale of the challenge and the historic nature of the responsibilities before Europe at this critical juncture for Ukraine,” the paper read.
“Europe cannot afford paralysis, either by hesitation or by the search for perfect or simple solutions which do not exist.”
While the document did not state a preference, von der Leyen said last week that using frozen Russian assets was the “most effective way” to finance Ukraine.
EU officials and diplomats have also warned that the alternative plans would incur greater costs for countries at a time when national budgets are under strain.
The commission is pushing for an agreement to be reached when EU leaders meet in December.
In a bid to assuage Belgian reticence, von der Leyen held talks with the country’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever last week.