Only two years ago the global community set the goal of tripling renewable energy output by 2030 to limit the rise in global temperatures, but the IEA said it will “fall short” of achieving that target.
Last year the Paris-based agency, which advises nations on energy, had forecast that the world would come close to that target with the addition of 5,500 GW of renewable power.
But the IEA now sees only a 4,600 GW gain, or 2.6 times the 2022 level, due to “policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024”, it said in its latest report on renewable energy.
The IEA revised down its forecast for the United States by almost 50 percent due to the early phase-out by President Donald Trump’s administration of tax credits for renewables and tighter regulatory controls over projects.
Meanwhile, China’s shift from fixed tariffs for renewable energy producers to auctions has shaken up the profitability of the projects and lowered growth expectations, it said.
Nevertheless it said China still accounts for most of the growth in renewable energy and that the country is on track to attain its 2035 wind and solar power target five years ahead of schedule.
Energy security
While growth in China and the United States may be slowing, the IEA said there was a more positive outlook elsewhere.
It pointed to India, which “is on track to meet its 2030 target and become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity set to rise by 2.5 times in five years”.
It also raised its forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa by 25 percent.
In Europe, the forecasts for Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain were also revised higher.
Solar panels accounted for around 80 percent of the global growth in renewable energy over the past five years, the IEA estimated, following by wind, water, biomass and geothermal power.
The outlook for offshore wind power was revised lower due to policy changes in key countries, the IEA said — particularly the United States, which has sought to halt projects already under construction.
The IEA also noted that renewables were helping countries meet their goals for greater financial and energy security.
“The deployment of renewables has already reduced fuel import needs significantly in many countries, enhancing energy diversification and security,” it said.
It added that countries need to increase the flexibility of electricity networks to cope with the intermittent nature of renewable power, which is expected to account for 30 percent of output by 2030, or double the current share.