Crisp sunny weather greeted early-morning voters at the Town Hall in The Hague, some of whom showed up before polling opened, snapping selfies before casting their ballot.

“I want the EU to change. I don’t like the way it’s going,” Simone Nieuwenhuys told AFP after giving her vote to the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders.

“Normally I wouldn’t vote PVV but I want an extra voice that puts on the brakes,” said the 48-year-old government finance employee, naming asylum and immigration policy as the key issues for her.

The EU’s 370 million voters are called to the polls at a time of deep geopolitical uncertainty for the bloc, two and a half years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The bulk of countries including powerhouses France and Germany will vote on Sunday, but the opening contest in The Netherlands will offer a glimpse of the strength of the far-right – whose predicted surge is the election’s top issue.

Wilders’ PVV, the surprise winner of national elections last November, is projected to top the EU polls. Though it dropped its pledge of a “Nexit” referendum on leaving the bloc, the PVV’s manifesto remains fiercely eurosceptic.

Claudia Balhuizen, who was first in line to vote at her polling station in The Hague, called his rise a “wake up” call.

Wilders “is getting a lot more attractive for a lot of people and I can understand that,” said the 42-year-old engineer, who named climate as a crucial issue for her because “we are messing up the planet.”

She saw the European elections as a way to “understand each other better.”

“We have to take into account different cultures, different world views,” Balhuizen said.

The Netherlands is just one of a long list of countries where nationalist, far-right, and other eurosceptic forces are expected to come out on top in the EU vote.

Polls suggest the hard-right could grab around a quarter of the new parliament’s 720 seats – significant enough to sway EU policy.

The results could also impact Brussels’ approach to climate change, relations with the US and China, support for Ukraine, EU enlargement, and adapting to AI innovations.

The speaker of the outgoing parliament, Roberta Metsola, used social media to urge a big turnout, telling voters: “Choose your future and make your voice heard.”

After the dust settles, the weightings of the emerging political groupings will help EU leaders decide who takes the bloc’s top institutional jobs, including at the European Commission.

Current commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, a German polyglot, is trying for a second term and is seen as the frontrunner, though diplomats caution that is not a given.

If tapped by member states, von der Leyen will still need to lock in support from parliament – or it will be back to square one and potentially months before the EU’s next boss is known.

“These are troubled times, and there’s a need to move fast,” said Sebastien Maillard, of French think tank the Jacques Delors Institute – warning of the risks of a leadership vacuum.

The prospect of Donald Trump triumphing in November US elections has focused European minds – but also given a boost to parties seeing alignment with Trump’s nationalist tenets.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party in France is predicted to come out on top, as is Italian premier Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist Brothers of Italy, and Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban’s far-right Fidesz party.

In Germany, the extreme-right AfD is polling second, after the opposition conservatives. In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party looks on track for victory.

In a number of countries, voters see European elections chiefly as a way to send messages to their own government – over everything from the cost of living, to law and order concerns, or the popularity of a national leader.

This time, according to polling data compiled by Politico, von der Leyen’s conservative European People’s Party (EPP) is on a path to get the most parliament seats – 172.

That accounts for less than a quarter of the chamber, meaning a coalition will be needed to pass legislation.

Most analysts believe the EPP’s existing alliance with the leftist Socialists and Democrats, predicted to win 143 seats, and the centrist Renew Group, eyeing 75, will carry over.

But there is speculation the EPP might instead look to work with far-right lawmakers, implying a much more rightwing agenda for Europe.