Pollster Find Out Now and political consultancy Electoral Calculus used modelling known as multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to project constituency-level results from a poll of 18,151 people.

The poll, carried out between Jan 24 and Feb 12 and published in the Mirror newspaper, puts Labour on 42% of the vote and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives on 22%.

When translated into seats in parliament, Labour would have a record 452, up from 202 at the last election in 2019, and the Conservatives just 80, down from 365, it said. That would give Labour a majority of 254 seats, larger than the party’s landslide victory under Blair.

Pollsters using MRP successfully predicted the 2017 UK election result.

The Mirror said under the projected results, 18 of Sunak’s cabinet ministers, including finance minister Jeremy Hunt and defence secretary Grant Shapps, faced losing their seats.