“We did not have open, intensive and extensive conversations on why we need to establish a new capital and why we need to relocate,” Baswedan, a former Jakarta governor, told a panel discussion hosted by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, when he was asked if he would support the country’s plan to relocate the capital to Borneo if he became president.

While Baswedan stressed that the plan has “very minimal political process, very minimal public engagement,” he also said, “This is no longer a proposal. This is already a law,” signalling that cancelation of the plan for him would not be an easy task.

His remark illustrates the major reason why global investors are feeling uncertain about their business opportunities in the new capital city. Though the country has already started preparing for the relocation, they find it difficult to bet on related projects until at least the country’s presidential election in February 2024.

Under Jokowi’s administration, relocating the capital has been a top priority to build his political legacy. Last year, the House of Representatives passed the bill on the new capital into law.

But technically, the new president would be able to cancel the relocation if the leader proposed amendments to the Law on State Capitals and if the amendments won support on the floor of the House of Representatives.

“Anies may abandon the plan for the relocation,” said Noory Okthariza, a researcher at the Jakarta unit of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. But he also sees it as too early to be certain Anies would roll back the relocation, saying, “He has not laid out his plan thoroughly about this, so one cannot ascertain his position yet. It seems to me that Anies still looks cautious about taking a strong position.”

Indeed, it was a rare moment in which Baswedan shared his thoughts on Nusantara to avoid domestic backlash, especially ahead of the polls. At least for now, “Anies will not (be) elected president if he openly states that he is against all of Jokowi’s policies,” said Piter Abdullah, executive director at the Jakarta-based Segara Research Institute.

So far, other candidates are also cautious about making a clear statement on the capital’s relocation. “But things may be different in the coming months as the election draws nearer and candidates have a stronger urge to differentiate themselves from each other,” Okthariza pointed out.

As for now, Baswedan remains among the three most popular presidential candidates, with his electability ratio at 22.8%, according to a December survey released by Jakarta-based pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia. Two others are Ganjar Pranowo, governor of Central Java, and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, with ratios of 29.5% and 19.5%, respectively.

Both Pranowo, a member of ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) which Jokowi belongs to, and Subianto seem to be following Jokowi’s plan to relocate the capital.

“Anyone who becomes leader will swear to obey the rules of the law, meaning that the law must be implemented,” Pranowo said on Dec 9 in an interview with local media BTV.

Prabowo is also expected to continue the project if he is elected president. “I strongly support [capital relocation] … we must continue,” the defence minister said in 2021 during a visit to Nusantara with Jokowi. “We must have the courage to move the capital city and separate the government from the centre of finance, trade and industry.”

Some of the candidates, mostly in the opposition camps, have expressed disagreement with the relocation.

In December, Ahmad Syaikhu, president of opposition party PKS, criticised the project, saying, “PKS requests that the continuation of the IKN (New Capital City of Nusantara) development agenda be calculated carefully and all forms of risks it poses be considered.”

Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, chairman of another opposition party Demokrat, meanwhile, did not criticise but rather questioned the project in September. “IKN must be conceptualised, planned and prepared as much as possible. If not, the development could fail.”

Java, where Jakarta is located, has for decades been the development focus of the country under previous governments, leading to disproportionately heavy concentration of economic activity and population.

Citing Jakarta’s chronic traffic, pollution, overcrowding and coastal flooding problems, in addition to the need for a new economic driver away from Java, Jokowi announced plans to relocate the capital shortly after starting his second term in late 2019.

The relocation to the middle of a forest in the province of Kalimantan was initially slated to begin in 2024, before the president’s term in office ends.

However, the current schedule remains unclear due to several setbacks, including the Covid-19 pandemic. The Indonesian government is also struggling to attract investors. More importantly, many uncertainties still hang over the megaproject, especially now that Jokowi’s time in office is winding down.