The question remains unanswered despite a case that shed further light on allegations of rampant corruption that had dogged the 63-year-old’s first term in office from 2013 to 2018. Yameen openly courted China during those five years, much to the chagrin of India, placing his island country in the centre of a South Asian geopolitical contest.
“This case is a big blow for Yameen’s plans to reclaim the presidency,” an insider with ties to the political elite in Male, the Maldivian capital, told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity. “It was a politically sensitive case, which had been rumbling on for months, and it shaped the chatter in the coffee shops – what a verdict against him would mean for his presidential rerun.”
Yameen’s allies in the Progressive Party of Maldives have gone on the offensive to defend their party’s leader and presidential nominee for 2023. Mohamed Saeed, former minister for Economic Development in the Yameen government, reckons that Yameen’s camp has enough time to challenge the December 2022 verdict, which needs to be overturned by a higher court in order for Yameen to run.
“The ruling does not prevent him from contesting the 2023 election until the final appeals process is exhausted,” Saeed, a PPM opposition parliamentarian, insisted. “The law permits him to contest the election pending an appeal of the conviction.”
The latest case against Yameen exposed murky transactions over the leasing of an island in Vaavu Atoll to a foreign developer to build a resort, in the archipelago nation famed for its high-end tourism. Yameen was charged for allegedly accepting a US$1 million bribe from Yoosuf Naeem, an ally and former parliamentarian.
Yameen’s defenders are banking on a repeat of the final outcome in a previous corruption case. He was initially found guilty by a court in 2019 for money laundering in another island lease deal for a resort in Gaafu Alifu Atoll. But in November 2021, the Supreme Court quashed his five-year prison sentence, granting him freedom.
“We believe and trust that [the Supreme Court] would use its inherent power to adjudicate appeal and issues of law in this case,” added Saeed. “Between now and [the] election there is sufficient time to reach a final verdict by the apex court.”
But a backlog of cases awaiting hearings at the Maldivian top court stands in the way. The latest count reveals that the court has more than “600 matters pending at the moment,” affirmed a Maldivian lawyer, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the politically charged nature of the Yameen case. “The court may require at least six months to conclude the case and to deliver a verdict.”
The integrity of the apex court is also at stake, added the lawyer, pointing to the danger of applying pressure to pick the Yameen appeal over other cases to meet a political deadline. The elections commission needs to finalise the list of presidential candidates before June 30.
“It would be problematic and raise questions on the partiality of the judiciary if this case were to be … put on a fast track, simply because [of the] elections,” said the lawyer.
Yameen’s legal troubles emerge against a backdrop of diplomatic unease surrounding the administration of incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. Yameen has been a thorn in the side of Solih’s government – and has also been causing disquiet in India, a strong ally of Solih – by pushing public campaigns that are openly hostile toward New Delhi, such as an “India Out” drive.
Solih, who unexpectedly triumphed over an increasingly autocratic Yameen in the September 2018 presidential polls, broke from his predecessor’s pro-China stance and tilted toward India, paving the way for financial largesse and security assistance from the country, a strong regional presence.
Seasoned analysts believe that India’s warm ties with the Solih administration are part of New Delhi’s strategy against China’s designs over the Indian Ocean.
Aparna Pande, research director for the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank, said that New Delhi used to “ignore” anti-Indian views like those espoused by Yameen, but that this only allowed China to swoop in across South Asia.
“Delhi has understood that India needs to up its game in its neighbourhood – South Asia and [the] Indian Ocean – if it seeks to push back against the Chinese ingress,” Pande said.
This year’s presidential election is expected to bring the geopolitical contest into sharper focus, as President Solih eyes a second term in office. If Yameen’s name is on the ballot by then, it will underscore the high stakes for China, say Male-based observers. But as one put it, echoing a commonly held view, “That is up to the apex court, which has been independent and has kept the public guessing about its rulings.”