The joint paper from Australia’s science agency and the national weather office identifies the burning of fossil fuels as far and away the largest source of extreme weather, and adds to the growing pressure on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and the bureau of meteorology said the report provides “a consistent picture of ongoing, long-term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability” across the country.
As well as extreme weather events, the paper also identifies issues such as increased sea surface and land temperatures, higher sea levels, growing levels of ocean acidification and rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The eight years from 2013 to 2020 were all among the top 10 warmest ever since records have been kept, the findings show, with 2019 – a year marked by some of the most devastating bushfires the country has seen – being the hottest yet.
The report, which also tracks Australia’s Antarctic territory, concludes that many of the predicted outcomes cannot be reversed “because CO2 persists in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, further warming and sea level rise are locked in”.
Environment minister Tanya Plibersek said the predictions were “sobering”, adding that “we are, as a government, absolutely determined to do our bit to keep global warming beneath 1.5°. We’ve legislated. We’ve invested”.
Science minister Ed Husic commented that the data “reinforces the urgent need for action on climate change”.
Simon Bradshaw, research director at the Sydney-based Climate Council, a nongovernmental organisation, told Nikkei, “The most concerning finding … is that Australia is warming faster than many other countries.”
“If warming continues at this trajectory, it runs the risk of worsening the frequency and severity of extreme heat events such as bushfires and heat waves.”
He added that the increased likelihood of torrential “rain bombs” becoming common.
The report comes as many Australians brace for another summer of weather extremes, with major bushfires, storms and flooding predicted for various regions.
This is particularly so in areas that have been heavily affected in recent years and are likely to be again.
“So many Australians have already suffered one or more unnatural disasters,” Bradshaw said.
“The expectation shouldn’t be just expecting them to pick themselves up and brush off their knees every single time.”
The Albanese government has been marketing the nation as a renewable energy powerhouse.
Yet in August, the minister for resources announced the release of almost 47,000 square kilometres of new area for offshore petroleum exploration.
At the COP27 global climate talks in November in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, Australia reiterated its greenhouse gas reduction target of 43% by 2030 (based on 2005 emissions) – a goal that analysts say is not sufficient to meet required levels of climate change mitigation.
The Greens party, which holds 12 crucial seats in the upper house, has been campaigning for a moratorium on all new fossil fuel leases in Australia.
This has been rejected by the Labor government.
Bradshaw argued that Australia’s stance at COP27 represented “a missed opportunity on a global scale”.
“Phasing out fossil fuels and implementing a target of 75% emissions reduction by 2030 is key to mitigating the worst impacts of climate in Australia.”
Johanna Nalau from Griffith University’s school of environment and science said the report confirms that the broad narrative on climate change needs to change.
“I do see a critical role … for these reports in raising awareness of what is in store for us in Australia and how we can start preparing for the future in a changing climate.”
She said the data, by necessity, is increasingly shaping the social and public policy discourse.
“The science is telling us of the real trends and changes that are on their way.”