“There has been a change in the approach from Beijing towards Taiwan in recent years,” said US secretary of state Antony Blinken at an Oct 17 event in California. “A fundamental decision [has been made] that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification [with Taiwan] on a much faster timeline.”
Chinese president Xi Jinping is expected to receive an unprecedented third term as leader at the 20th Communist Party Congress, which will continue until Oct 22, and he may further ratchet up military pressure on Taiwan.
A person with direct knowledge of the administration’s internal deliberation acknowledged that initial discussions on joint US-Taiwan production had begun.
It is likely for US defence companies to provide technology to manufacture weapons in Taiwan, or to produce them in the US using Taiwan-made parts. “This is going to take some time to really shake out,” said another source, adding that the process is likely to continue throughout 2023.
“The Hsiung Feng II and III missiles are Taiwanese missiles developed by the NCSIST (National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology) and are produced with some US technology,” a representative of the US-Taiwan Business Council, a group that includes major US defence contractors, said. “Taiwan has not co-produced US weapons whether munitions or platforms.”
Previous US administrations are thought to have been cautious about joint production of US-made weapons because of the risk of classified information leaking.
The Biden administration is considering co-production to expedite arms transfers. Generally, it takes between several to 10 years from the time the US government approves an arms sale until the delivery is completed.
The US military believes China may be capable of seizing Taiwan by 2027, meaning there is limited time left for Taiwan to improve its self-defence capabilities.
The rapid increase in arms provisions to Ukraine has made it difficult for the US alone to meet the global demand for weaponry. In a mid-September report, Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that US inventories of Stingers, a mobile air-defence system, and Himars high-mobility rocket systems, were “limited.”
Stingers and Himars are manufactured by US defence giants Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin, respectively.
In May, Taiwan’s ministry of national defence revealed that it had planned to receive the Stinger sequentially by March 2026, but the pace of delivery may slow. The government is poised to switch its procurement of self-propelled howitzers to other systems due to delays in delivery. The delivery of Himars is expected to be completed in 2027, and Harpoon anti-ship missile systems in 2028.
According to Congressional documents obtained by Nikkei in the spring of 2022, the US government has not completed the delivery of at least 10 arms sales approved since July 2019, and the government estimates the sales to be worth over US$13 billion.
The Biden administration is also laying the groundwork to encourage allies and partners to provide security assistance to Taiwan. Nikkei Asia has learned that the Biden administration has begun sounding out partners regarding the provision of weapons and parts to Taiwan.
The Group of Seven agreed on the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and some expressed willingness to provide arms to the island. In an interview with CNN in September, British prime minister Liz Truss stressed, “All of our allies need to make sure Taiwan is able to defend itself.” France has previously done business with Taiwan regarding frigates and fighter aircrafts.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the UK, all of Taiwan’s arms imports came from the US from 2016 to 2020. China will likely have a strong opposition to arms support by European and Asian countries that do not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
The US and other 50 countries have held a regular conference for Ukraine to coordinate their security assistance. The last meeting was held on Oct12, and participants agreed to accelerate the transfer of air-defence systems, in light of large-scale missile attacks from Russia.