At the local level, some states are already considering draft legislation and programmes.
“We need to control” the rapidly increasing population or else it will lead to disorder, said Yogi Adityanath, chief minister of northern state Uttar Pradesh and member of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, after the United Nations released its latest population forecast in July.
Uttar Pradesh is India’s most populous state with over 200 million people and one of the poorest, with many residents working elsewhere as migrant labourers. The state hammered out a draft “two-child” policy last summer, which is now under consideration.
The central government indicated last month that it is not considering any population control legislation. But in August 2019 on the country’s Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed that the “rapidly increasing population poses various new challenges” and may hinder the country’s growth. Some lawmakers in Modi’s BJP are calling for measures to curb the population.
Beside Uttar Pradesh, states such as Assam in the north and Karnataka in the south are looking at measures to incentivise households to have no more than two children.
The momentum for population control is driven by concerns over slow job growth as well as fears of food and energy shortages.
India is set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, with its population surging from nearly 1.42 billion in July 2022 to over 1.67 billion in 2050, according to UN estimates.
The World Bank predicts that India’s workers aged 15 years and older will increase by about 1.3 million a month until 2025. Some 8 million new jobs a year are thought to be needed to avoid massive unemployment. But even now unemployment in urban areas remains high amid stagnant economic growth, particularly with the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
While China has turned itself into a manufacturing powerhouse with state-led programmes, about half India’s labour force still makes a living from agriculture. Modi’s government has introduced subsidies and other measures since 2020 to develop local manufacturing and create jobs, but progress has been slow. To secure food, restrictions have been placed on exports of sugar and flour.
The rapid expansion of population also threatens further conflicts between Hindus and Muslims.
One reason for the swelling population is thought to be an increase among Muslim minorities, who account for 14% of the total. The Hindu-nationalist BJP tends to implement measures marginalising Muslims.
The population-control proposals in Uttar Pradesh and other states are also seen as a way to curb an increase in Muslim people. If India fails to achieve economic growth fit for its increasing population, this would further raise the risks of religious clashes.