Releases by Japan’s defence ministry show 90 instances of activity by Chinese and Russian military vessels and aircraft near Japan in the four months after the invasion began. There had been 35 in the four months before.
A Chinese vessel and Russian vessel entered Japan’s contiguous zone near the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands on July 4. China claims the islands as the Diaoyu.
The Russian vessel then sailed north through the Senkakus on July 5 before entering the contiguous zone near Japan’s southernmost Okinotori islets the following day.
The type of activity recorded has also shifted since the Ukraine invasion began. On June 7, four aircraft believed to be part of the Russian military flew straight towards Japan from west of Hokkaido. They shifted course just before entering Japanese airspace after the Japan Air Self-Defence Force scrambled fighter jets in response.
Before turning away, the four planes were on a trajectory towards Hokkaido’s largest city of Sapporo, a Japanese defence official said. Concern is growing that such activity may be part of planned military operations in the area.
China and Russian naval vessels circumnavigated Japan around the same time last month as well in an unusual manoeuvre. Three Chinese vessels began sailing north through the Sea of Japan from the Tsushima Strait in mid-June and split up into two groups as they headed east toward the Pacific Ocean. They sailed past the Izu Islands on June 21 and to the northeast of the Miyako Islands on June 29.
Meanwhile, seven Russian vessels were detected around 280km southeast of Cape Erimo in Hokkaido on June 15. Some sailed south through the Pacific Ocean, then travelled north between Okinawa Island and the Miyako Islands on the 19th. On June 21, they headed northeast through the Tsushima Strait.
Though the vessels took different routes, there is concern that they were testing their ability to coordinate in waters near Japan.
Japan and other Group of Seven nations banned imports of Russian coal, froze bank assets and imposed other sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine war. Russian military activity is seen as a response to these penalties.
Chinese and Russian military activity picked up in particular around May 22, when US president Joe Biden visited Japan. A total of 43 instances were logged in May, up from seven in April.
Following a summit on May 23, Biden and Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida issued a joint statement calling for greater deterrence and response capabilities under the bilateral alliance.
A total of six Chinese and Russian bombers conducted a joint patrol near Japan as the leaders attended a summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, which also included Australia and India, in Tokyo on May 24.
“The recent actions by China and Russia are intended to show us, ‘This is what we can do together if necessary,'” said Ken Jimbo, a professor on Keio University’s Faculty of Policy Management. “They are high-level manoeuvres conducted with real-life combat in mind.”
Should Japan increase its defence spending, “it will need to adopt drones and other equipment and rethink its response,” he said.