Sinopharm, Sinovac Biotech and Cansino Biologics exported a total of 6.78 million doses in April, down 97% from the peak in September 2021, according to Unicef. This includes vaccines in which some production processes, such as bottling, were conducted overseas.
Meanwhile, 55.69 million doses of the vaccine jointly developed by Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech were exported in April, down 71% from September but more than eight times the Chinese figure. Exports by Moderna of the US fell 57% to 16.49 million.
Even if Chinese vaccines are administered for the first or second shot, their use as a third booster shot has fallen sharply, according to UK research company Airfinity.
The number of times a Chinese vaccine was used as a booster compared with a first shot plummeted 98% in Pakistan, 93% in Indonesia, 92% in Bangladesh and 74% in Brazil.
Beijing-based Bridge Consulting notes that Brazil and Indonesia did not renew contracts that expired last year for Chinese vaccines.
China initially held the lead in Covid-19 vaccine exports after Chinese, US and European drugmakers began commercialising them around the end of 2020.
Beijing was quick to supply doses to regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America, and the Chinese trio exported more than Pfizer from December 2020 to March 2021.
This was partly because Chinese vaccines were the only available option for developing nations since the US and Europe secured large numbers of doses for their own citizens.
Chinese vaccines were surpassed by Pfizer in terms of export numbers but came back on top in September 2021. Chinese President Xi Jinping boasted that the country is contributing to the global fight against Covid-19, but this momentum did not last.
The rapid spread of the Omicron variant since autumn has been a major factor, as Chinese health officials acknowledge that Chinese vaccines are not as effective against Omicron.
In a paper published in March by the University of Hong Kong and others, a study on about 4,300 people who were infected after receiving two shots in Hong Kong found that the number of people with severe symptoms who were vaccinated with the Sinovac vaccine were more than triple those vaccinated with Pfizer’s.
Experts have pointed out that inactivated vaccines, which make up the vast majority of vaccines produced by China, are less effective compared with those based on newer mRNA technology, such as the shots made by Pfizer and Moderna.
Global demand for Covid-19 vaccines is declining. About 10.5 million doses are administered daily now, down 71% from the end of last year, according to the Our World in Data project at the University of Oxford.
“With Omicron variants causing less severe disease, people don’t have the appetite for more doses,” said Matt Linley, a lead analyst at Airfinity.
Still, the drop in Chinese vaccine exports is striking. China’s vaccination rate is very high, so it is not that the country does not have enough to export.
This development is a setback for China’s vaccine diplomacy, in which Beijing pressured developing nations to support its position on issues such as Taiwan in exchange for vaccines.
In February 2021, the South American nation of Guyana scrapped its agreement to set up a diplomatic office in Taiwan after announcing that it accepted a donation of Chinese vaccines.
Now, new infections are decreasing in Asia except in China, where outbreaks have been reported in such cities as Shanghai. “One reason is that in mainland China, only domestic vaccines with low efficacy have been approved,” said a man in his 30s in Dalian.