The prospect of a grand coalition between Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and the ruling centre-left Democratic Party against the surging populists and far-right appears no longer feasible.

Both the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the far-right Northern League party have ruled out the possibility of a post-election pact, but this is currently the only option that looks like it would command a majority.

According to the latest projections, the two parties together would hold 355 seats in the 630-seat lower house of parliament and 168 seats in the 315-seat upper house.

Both parties are heavily eurosceptic and League leader Matteo Salvini has been accused of stirring up racial tensions. A tie-up could cause shockwaves around Europe.

Preliminary results make this remote as the coalition is predicted to win only 37% of the vote, including 18% for the Northern League and 14% for Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party.

The final result of the vote in terms of seats is hard to predict, however, as Italy is using a new electoral law for the first time that combines proportional representation with a first-past-the-post system.

If the coalition does win a majority and the League comes in ahead of Forza Italia, this would open the prospect of far-right Salvini being nominated as Italy’s next prime minister.

If there is no clear majority, President Sergio Mattarella could choose to leave in place the current centre-left government of Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni.

This would allow time to set up a temporary government to reform the electoral law and organise new elections.

But the process would take time as consultations could only start after parliament’s newly-elected lawmakers meet for the first time on March 23 to elect speakers.

After a stalemate following Italy’s last election in 2013, it took more than two months to form a government.