To paraphrase Bill Clinton, it’s the recruitment, stupid!
In a week when Arsenal won the League, Villa won the Europa League and Pep Guardiola is being lauded for a glittering legacy at City, it’s the obvious conclusion to draw.
The former American president was talking about the economy being the main concern of voters.
You could say the success of these clubs is also about the economy.
Most notably, the EPL’s massive broadcasting revenue being more than its next biggest rivals (La Liga and the Bundesliga) combined.
In fact, you’d have to be a bit stupid not to see what sort of recruits a £7 billion bounty can bring.
City spent more than any club during Guardiola’s decade in charge. He won the league six times and 20 major trophies in all.
Arsenal’s great leap forward came when Mikel Arteta spent £200m in the summer of 2023.
Aston Villa’s Unai Emery has made do with a mere £300m on 20 players in his four years. But the club’s income is still three times that of their defeated opponents, Freiburg in the Bundesliga.
Conversely, Liverpool spent a record £450m last summer and got worse, while United lashed out half that and improved.
It’s not just how much you have; it’s how you spend it.
But this is not to denigrate the afore-mentioned successful trio of top managers. (Just a reminder that a rich top manager is more likely to succeed than one who is on a budget).
Priority has to be given to Arteta for finally getting Arsenal over the line after 8,060 days.
That was when they were last champions under Arsene Wenger. We knew he would be a tough act to follow, but…
Since that day at Tottenham, of all places, in 2004, up to the final whistle at Bournemouth on Tuesday, lifetimes of anguish have been felt.
Gooners, accustomed to the annual table-top joust between Wenger and Alex Ferguson, were blindsided by the emergence of two other major forces.
Nobody saw Roman Abramovich’s Chelsea and Abu Dhabi’s City coming.
With money no object, the two new rich kids on the block eclipsed United as well, so the traditional top two slipped into mediocrity.
Gooners were reduced to laughing at themselves via Arsenal Fan TV.
Fortunately for them, Josh Kroenke, son of owner ‘Silent Stan’, persuaded his dad to make some noise with the family’s football interest.
Hiring Emery looked like a smart move, but it just didn’t work.
The Spaniard has now claimed his fifth Europa League (previously the UEFA Cup) with Villa, but he didn’t cut it at The Emirates.
He didn’t have the funds given to Arteta, and his command of English wasn’t as good back then.
But he was also a victim of the “James Bond succession curse”: never follow a legend.
Emery would be the George Lazenby to Wenger’s Sean Connery, just as David Moyes was to Ferguson.
Arteta has become the Roger Moore while United are still waiting for their long-term successor.
Having served at Guardiola’s knee, Arteta knew what to do, but it was only when Arsenal bought David Raya, Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber with that £200m that they looked champion material.
And even then, it took a couple more seasons.
The game has a bone to pick with their use of set-pieces, which led to 24 goals. But such was their desperation to remove the bottler tag that they tried every trick in the book to win.
And it wasn’t as if they were hiding it; they just exploited a loophole in the laws better than anyone else.
A real test of their ability awaits in Budapest on May 30 when they face the best footballing side on the planet in Paris Saint-Germain.
You feel they will need more than strong-arm tactics then.
As for Pep, he will go down in history. Yes, he had the money, but he changed the game and in a positive way.
He has lower league teams, amateurs and even kids copying his style and there’s no greater legacy than that. All over the world.
Of the three giants of the EPL era (Wenger and Ferguson being the others), his was by far the shortest reign.
But he will probably leave the most lasting impact.
Arteta is a disciple, as is Enzo Maresca, who will be trying to fit into his giant shoes.
And what of Emery? Will the Villa owners give him the funds to turn a very good team into a potentially great one (as Kroenke did with Arteta)?
As it stands, there might be a return to the old Arsenal-Man United rivalry next season.
Given that Maresca may need time at City, as will Xabi Alonso at Chelsea, and with Liverpool needing a substantial refit, you can see Arteta and Michael Carrick duking it out when August comes around.
Villa? If Emery is given the funds, they could be a dark horse.
Much will depend on how the contenders cope with a heavy fixture load, as at least five EPL clubs will be in the Champions League next season.
If Arsenal were to bring back Old Big Ears, it would compound UEFA’s problems of a single nation’s dominance of club football.
If Paris Saint-Germain justify their favourites’ status, so at least the openness of the elite competition should be maintained.
What UEFA didn’t foresee is that by expanding the Champions League to 36 clubs, all the decent continental clubs were sucked up into it.
It left the next layer easy prey for the mid- or even low-ranking but cash-rich EPL clubs to dominate Europe’s second- and third-tier competitions.
Spurs famously won the Europa League from 17th place last season while Chelsea won the Conference after a poor effort in the league.
But then Crystal Palace are strongly fancied to keep the Conference trophy in London after Chelsea’s success last year.
Even in the basement, EPL clubs pick up well over £100m in TV revenue.
They can do some handy recruitment with that.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.