For decades, many Malaysians quietly held on to the reassuring belief that as an oil-producing nation we would always be protected from global shortages and the storms that buffet energy markets.

Insulated by subsidies, we continued to believe we would always have cheap fuel at the pump because we had Petronas, that national oil colossus standing guard over us. For decades we took it easy – both government and the people.

Unfortunately, that beguiling belief now faces its sternest test.

And I fear most Malaysians are not yet fully aware of what could befall us if the Iran-Israel-US war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or contested.

On March 3, I called on Malaysians in my column to brace themselves for tougher times. They should expect, I had said, for a rise in the cost of living, especially if there was a prolonged war. I suspect that not many, including in government, took it seriously.

I suspect too that many are still unprepared for what is likely coming in the next few months.

One of the most dangerous aspects of this crisis is the “lag effect.” It takes three to six months for the cost of expensive oil, high insurance, and surging freight prices to filter down to the ordinary consumer.

When Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim spoke to the nation early this month, his message was direct: “This is not business as usual.” He’s right.

The conflict in West Asia, increasingly referred to as the Iran War and now entering its second month, has sent ripples far beyond the region. It has laid bare the fragility of supply lines nations took for granted: the movement of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz – through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes – has been disrupted.

As a result, we are constantly assailed by news that Brent crude has surged, insurance premiums for tankers have ballooned, and freight charges have soared.

The opposition has questioned the price increases for unsubsidised petrol and diesel. PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, for instance, insists there is “no justification” for raising fuel prices.

I believe he fears, like most of us, that the government’s warnings are to prepare us for subsidies to be reduced or removed.

He notes two points: first, Malaysia is an oil producer, and second, we have not been directly targeted by Iran’s restrictions and still enjoy Tehran’s goodwill. The problem, he says, lies in domestic leakages and mismanagement, not in the Strait of Hormuz.

He is right about leakages and there may be some truth to his claim of mismanagement. Or more likely, I should think, complacency. The Malaysian tendency to “take it easy” – whether government or bureaucracy or individuals – is perhaps our greatest vulnerability

Hadi’s view mirrors that of the legions of Malaysians who hold the belief that Malaysia’s protection against the vagaries of the oil market is something of a birthright – because we have Petronas.

But Hadi and others miss the larger picture.

Petronas is no longer a net exporter of oil. Malaysia produces premium crude — the sort that fetches a fine price on international markets — but we import substantial quantities of the refined petroleum products that actually propel our cars, our commerce, and our daily existence.

In March, Anwar said Malaysia exported crude oil worth about US$5.5 billion in 2025 but imported almost US$12.6 billion.

Anwar has since stated that our reserves are secure only for April and May. June, he warned, remained uncertain.

Finance minister II Amir Hamzah Azizan said on April 10 that the government was absorbing about RM6 billion in subsidies to shield Malaysians from the impact of the energy crisis. The subsidy was only RM700 million a month before the crisis.

The government is trying to manage the situation with targeted measures. For instance, the monthly subsidised RON95 quota for eligible citizens has been cut from 300 litres to 200 litres. And a three-day work-from-home policy begins on April 15 for civil servants living more than 8km from their offices in major urban centres.

Certainly Malaysia remains something of a regional outlier, second only to Brunei in the affordability of subsidised fuel. Several Asean nations have already resorted to the harsher remedies of rationing and the shuttering of petrol stations.

Because of the heavy subsidies, the impact on ordinary households has so far been delayed — what economists call the “lag effect”. But that delay, I repeat, will not last forever.

In three to six months, higher logistics and transportation costs are expected to push up grocery prices, e-hailing fares and the cost of many everyday goods.

Fertiliser prices, especially urea, have already increased by about 30%, raising concerns about food production. Electricity bills are likely to edge higher because Malaysia imports 20% of its natural gas and all its coal. The possibility of the water bill going up later this year exists, with water service operators already being told to maintain stockpiles of chemicals and spare parts for three to six months.

I say again: Be prepared.

The effects of the crisis are already visible in some sectors. The rubber glove industry, where Malaysia accounts for about 45% of global production, is under strain. WRP Asia Pacific has announced it is winding down operations due to sharp rises in petrochemical costs, including a nearly 70% increase in butadiene prices. Others, such as Top Glove, have had to raise prices and explore alternatives like natural rubber.

Malaysia needs to look seriously at diversifying its energy sources, accelerating the shift towards alternative energy, and building stronger strategic reserves – even if some options come with higher costs in the short term.

Instead of anger, the opposition and others should pressure the government to travel new paths while simultaneously improving the existing system.

We have often managed to muddle through crises, but complacency has its price. The current energy crunch is a reminder that the era of easy assumptions about cheap fuel may be drawing to a close.

The storm is no longer on the horizon; it is at our shores.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.