Manchester City are on a seven-game winning streak in all competitions.
They have won their last three EPL games while keeping a clean sheet for the first time since 2021.
Erling Haaland is scoring. Phil Foden has regained his mojo. Injured players are returning. New stars are emerging.
But the main reason Arsenal can feel City’s hot breath on their necks is that Pep Guardiola is becoming a real pain to his players!
Weighing them before and after Christmas, refusing them a break and admonishing a winning team.
Nor has he ruled out quitting at the end of the season.
“I have unfinished business” is how he tried to squirm out of giving a definite answer when asked if he’ll still be in charge of the Blues next season.
And we all know what that could mean if he finishes the business this season.
There’s a growing sense that if City win the league title – or perhaps the Champions League – next May, he may well call it a day at The Etihad.
“I can’t stay forever,” he offered. Well, after nine seasons, it feels like forever for some of his rivals.
Given the state he and City were in this time last year, it is quite a turnaround.
Should he cap it with the title, he would have nothing left to prove.
A year ago, City’s last home game before Christmas was a dire derby defeat to United.
Then they hit “a new low” in a 1-2 loss at a Morgan Rogers-inspired Aston Villa. Rogers is another ex-City academy boy who got away.
Last Saturday’s 3-0 trouncing of West Ham was City’s fifth consecutive league victory and their eighth home win in a row in the EPL.
And they have scored at least three goals in six of their last seven top-flight fixtures.
It gave City a taste of the top last weekend and they are ravenous for more.
With Guardiola in his current mood, the players won’t be eating too much festive food either.
But that defeat of the Hammers was a mere appetiser served up by the fixture computer.
Arsenal, playing later, duly reclaimed their seat at the head of the table with a 1-0 win at Everton.
This Saturday, City get served first again when they visit Nottingham Forest in the lunchtime show (8.30pm in Malaysia).
And those who saw Forest’s limp defeat to Fulham in midweek will not be expecting anything other than a routine City win.
But the musical chairs should be a repeat of last week with Arsenal likely to assume the No.1 position with a home game against Brighton half an hour after the final whistle on Trentside.
The Gunners are still two points ahead but City at least widened the gap in goal difference to four.
You’d expect City to stretch it further by the end of the season, judging by the way they’re beginning to gel.
And Arsenal’s attack has suddenly become blunt.
Goals could be decisive in a close race and here City have Erling Haaland; Arsenal have Viktor Gyokeres.
Both are Scandinavian, but that’s where the similarity ends. Haaland is rewriting the record books while Gyokeres is still trying to justify his £50m fee.
And now Gabriel Jesus is fit again, the Swede might lose his place in the starting XI – to which he’s only recently been restored.
The huge gulf in class in the crucial “No.9” position could tilt things City’s way, but elsewhere there’s not a huge difference, and a composite team would be a fairly even mix.
But City probably have the edge in goal with Gianluigi Donnarumma, one of the world’s best, although David Raya is also excellent and underrated by Spain.
The most commonly used word to describe City is ‘ominous’ and soon it will be spelt with a capital ‘O’.
Two points at Christmas is nothing – there’s more than half the season left.
And Arsenal have shown small cracks with that defeat to Villa and lucky win over Wolves.
Not to mention needing an own goal and penalties to see off Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup!
On all four occasions they have led the EPL at Christmas, they have failed to win the title, finishing second in 2002/03 and third in 2007/08, before being pipped twice by Guardiola under Arteta.
Making it even more sobering, is that the three times they topped the old first division on December 25, the title also eluded them.
If history doesn’t faze Arsenal, the present might. While they struggle to score, Pep has regained his swagger.
Blasting his players – even when they win.
He refused their request to have an extended Christmas break after being left unimpressed by their latest performance against West Ham.
“I said, no, because you didn’t play good enough,” he said. “So recovery, train the guys that didn’t play, and after three days off, you have two days to prepare for Nottingham Forest.”
That meant Christmas Day at the training ground.
In a show of genuine anger, he ran on the field to give Josko Gvardiol coaching lessons on defending a few seconds after the final whistle.
No matter that City had kept a clean sheet, and keeper Donnarumma touched the ball with his hands just three times, he wasn’t happy.
There was a view at City that some players can only take being treated like schoolkids for so long, which may explain some surprising exits over the years.
But that’s usually after they’ve loaded up with silverware and made their names.
Pep now has a new star in Rayan Cherki, exciting youngsters in Nico O’Reilly and Divine Mukasa, has brought the best out of Nico Gonzales and Jeremy Doku, has resurrected Foden and has Haaland purring.
The only missing ingredient is Rodri, but even without their erstwhile key man, City look capable of giving Pep the perfect farewell present.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of FMT.