From Mazli Noor

I had the pleasure of attending the recent Khazanah Megatrend Forum 2025 where leading experts, academics and industry practitioners gathered to explore this year’s theme, “Debugging Uncertainty”.

Most of the discussions revolved around the tools and strategies trending in managing investment risks and uncertainties in an increasingly complex global environment.

A concept that resonated throughout was the idea of the “unknown unknown” – risks that we simply cannot anticipate, driven by factors we do not yet understand. For those in investment and corporate leadership positions, this is perhaps our greatest challenge. No matter how sophisticated our analytical frameworks or how rigorous our due diligence, markets have a way of confounding even the best predictions.

My own unfortunate experience certainly bears this out. At one point, we invested in a dredging operation to capitalise on the robust Chinese demand for sea sand, an investment marked by compelling fundamentals and clear commercial logic.

Almost immediately after launch, however, Beijing ceased all imports, with motherships that had been operating in Malaysian waters vanishing practically overnight. With no recourse in sight, we were forced to execute an acute strategic pivot to rebuild the company’s business model from the ground up and salvage what we could from a suddenly non-existent market.

Then, there was a joint venture we established with one of the leading petrochemical companies from Malaysia and Germany to produce hydrocarbon-based chemicals for a broad range of consumer applications such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and electronics. Yet despite being backed by thorough market analysis and strong industry players, the global petrochemical market collapsed just as we became operational. Our partners, along with the broader Malaysian petrochemical sector, faced a broad and lasting impact.

Current S&P Global forecasts anticipate a prolonged overcapacity through 2025, increasing pressure on already thin margins, with an industry-wide consolidation likely as companies seek to establish raw material security and market share.

These instances reinforce a fundamental truth: even the most rigorous planning cannot fully account for market dynamics. Markets are fluid, opaque and can shift dramatically in the blink of an eye – and this is before any consideration for the compounding effects of geopolitical disruptions such as in Gaza and Ukraine, or the policy uncertainties surrounding global trade.

Yet despite the obvious challenges, strategic planning and investments remain an imperative. Paralysis in the face of uncertainty is not a viable option, with the alternative simply unthinkable. As the saying goes, “hope for the best and prepare for the worst”.

Here, my faith offers a valuable perspective: Islamic theology includes the concept of qada and qadar – divine decree and its manifestation – as a founding pillar. Qada represents God’s eternal knowledge and plan, while qadar is the unfolding of that plan in this world.

While everything unfolds according to His decree, the faith still demands that we plan, act and persevere to the best of our abilities, while maintaining patience, humility and gratefulness whatever the outcome may be. This demand for our absolute best, then leaving everything else to Him, is encompassed in the concept of tawakkul, where we acknowledge and accept that He alone knows best.

As the Quran instructs: “When you have decided, then rely on Allah. Indeed, Allah loves those who rely on Him.” (3:159)

This principle of decisive action, coupled with trust in outcomes beyond our control, offers a sustainable approach to navigating the uncertainties inherent in any decision. It creates a healthy psychological balance, where we celebrate success without hubris and accept setbacks without despair, understanding that both are part of a larger design.

In an era of compounding uncertainties, this framework for faith-informed decision-making offers not just concrete spiritual grounding but practicable wisdom for the entire investment community.

Mazli Noor serves on the boards of several public and private companies and is an FMT reader.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.