Let’s envisage a scenario where the next general election is called tomorrow and the political parties in Barisan Nasional are allowed to re-contest the seats they stood for in past general elections.
Let’s also assume that this is happening after the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional partnership allows for a free-for-all after seat talks fail or they decide to go solo.
Can MCA retain its two seats and win any of the 42 constituencies it vied for and lost in the 2022 general election (GE15)? Or can MIC, which is the weaker of the two, retain its one seat and get back the other nine it contested for and lost in 2022?
You need not be a genius to answer these questions. At best, it’s likely to be status quo, if not wiped out altogether. The scores of state seats they lost over the last two elections are another story.
Right now, it’s wrong to claim that MIC has not been given anything by the unity government. Although it failed miserably in GE15, the party’s representatives have been given state exco portfolios and appointed councillors in local authorities in BN-governed states.
The party’s contention is that it was not given a minister’s post or senior appointments in government-linked companies as reasons for reconsidering its future in BN. Let’s get real here. You have to deliver the votes and the seats if you want some bargaining power.
Both MCA and MIC cannot be demanding for posts and positions after their colossal failure in GE15.
Even DAP, with 40 seats in Parliament — the most for any party in the unity government — was given only four ministerial posts by PH.
Hence, to demand a minister’s post with a mere one or two seats is quite unacceptable.
Under the circumstances, the risks are too high for these two parties to leave their masters and align themselves with the PAS-led Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition. PN’s de-facto leader, Bersatu, may be seen as opening its arms to MCA and MIC but the Islamic party’s overwhelming majority in the coalition could be a deterrent for non-Malay voters.
Most non-Malay voters are unlikely to back parties which are cohabitating with PAS and Bersatu which treat them as second class members. They cannot vote or vie for top positions in the party hierarchy.
Many are asking how non-Malay voters could support a coalition which has openly declared their political status. It’s akin to accepting the downgrade and condoning their classification as second-class citizens.
Despite the DAP having lost a certain amount of support for its weak stance on certain issues, it is likely that most supporters will not gamble with a coalition that is led by a party advocating a theocracy, boldly stating that an Islamic state is the best solution for the country.
MCA and MIC will risk ending up as limp as Gerakan in the PN coalition, a partner which is neither dead nor alive.
The PAS non-Muslim supporters wing (DHPP), the Malaysian Indian People’s Party and Gerakan are minnows in the coalition. In any case, they are mostly disgruntled politicians from other parties who lost or were not given seats in the last election.
The Indian parties are claiming that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has completely sidelined the community after being appointed to the post. They may have a point but the truth is that all this clamour is linked to power and positions, not the community’s long-term interest.
MIC needs new political strategy, not coalition
The MIC was actually reshaped by the late S Samy Vellu in the 1980s and 90s during the height of his leadership, leaving an enduring legacy. Many leaders who are enjoying the limelight today are his proteges. They rose to power by supporting him with unflinching loyalty.
To a certain extent, his legacy is still prevalent despite the changing times and political landscape. If the MIC wants to reform, it should break away from the legacy and groom leaders who can reshape the party.
Well, it cannot be done overnight, it will take a decade or even longer. The damage to the party is so huge that reviving the glory days will surely take some time.
First to go must be the politics of patronage that is deeply entrenched in the psyche of Indians. This is actually a BN problem. MIC must exorcise this mentality from the community if it wants to see change.
Perhaps leaders from Samy Vellu’s era, who have enjoyed immense power and prosperity, should be phased out.
The party must be rejuvenated by young leaders who have calibre and are intellectually strong, and who can empathise with the disadvantaged Indians who are struggling to forge ahead. The community needs a totally revamped leadership.
The community cannot expect much from the DAP which had the support of Indians on a large scale in the 2022 general election. With its current obsession to remain in the government and keeping Anwar in power, their past battle cry for a Malaysian Malaysia has gone down the drain.
‘Sink or swim with BN’
Samy Vellu’s famous declaration in the 90s that MIC will “sink or swim” with BN came to my mind when talk of the party leaving the coalition surfaced. MIC could face political marginalisation if it exits BN, as it would struggle to compete against established parties without the support and resources from the coalition.
Similarly, MCA’s departure could weaken its already diminished political standing, as it has been bleeding support among the Chinese electorate.
The risks associated with such a move are substantial. Both parties would need to rebuild their political bases from scratch, which could take decades.
If the MIC thinks changing coalition could be an option, it better think again. The major ideological and cultural differences with PAS could complicate their efforts to establish a fresh political identity.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.