From Julia Roknifard
Asean is on the cusp of welcoming its first new member since 1999, as the young nation of Timor-Leste is set to join later this year.
This long-awaited accession is more than a symbolic milestone — it marks a strategic inflection point with far-reaching geopolitical and economic implications.
By integrating into Asean, it gains access to one of the world’s most dynamic regional blocs, enabling it to amplify its voice in international forums, and secure its strategic interests by tapping into an established network of diplomatic and economic support.
It also strengthens Asean’s credibility as an inclusive and cohesive organisation, while giving Timor-Leste a platform to navigate the intensifying competition between global powers in the Indo-Pacific.
As Asean deepens ties with powers like China and groupings like the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to fortify its resilience, Timor-Leste’s inclusion reaffirms the bloc’s centrality and its role as a stabilising force in the region.
A long road to nationhood
Timor-Leste’s aspirations for regional integration are rooted in its complex and painful history. A colonial possession of Portugal from 1769 to 1975, the territory saw little development, as Portugal maintained an extractive relationship focused on sandalwood and coffee exports.
Following the 1974 Carnation Revolution in Portugal, the colonial administration collapsed, and local factions vied for control amid newfound independence.
However, this brief window of self-determination was shattered when Indonesia invaded in 1975, fearing the rise of a left-leaning Timor-Leste could inspire separatist movements within its own borders.
Backed tacitly by the US during the Cold War, Indonesia’s occupation was marked by widespread repression.
According to the Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation in East Timor, at least 102,800 people died between 1974 and 1999 — 18,600 from direct killings and 84,200 from hunger and illness.
It was not until a UN-brokered agreement between Indonesia and Portugal in 1999 that a popular referendum was held under international supervision with the country ultimately holding its first democratic elections in 2001 and gaining full independence in 2002.
Cold War 2.0 in the Indo-Pacific
Today, Timor-Leste’s strategic location and resource potential have made it a theatre for geopolitical rivalry between Australia and China.
Australia has long played a prominent role in Timor-Leste’s post-independence development, particularly in security and energy cooperation.
However, the Greater Sunrise gas field is a key flashpoint, with Timor-Leste pushing for processing it on its own territory to maximise domestic benefits, while Australia advocates transferring it to Darwin for processing.
This disagreement has strained bilateral ties and created an opening for China.
Beijing has stepped in with infrastructure investments, development loans, with an eye on the energy sector, aligning with its broader Indo-Pacific strategy.
While Timorese leaders emphasise that China’s role is primarily economic, Western observers express concern over potential long-term strategic consequences.
As Canberra and Beijing seek to shape Timor-Leste’s development trajectory, Dili is increasingly adopting a balancing act — welcoming assistance while safeguarding sovereignty.
In this context, Asean membership becomes not just a goal but a geopolitical anchor. It offers Timor-Leste a multilateral framework through which it can manage its relationships with larger powers and assert greater control over its national direction.
It also harmonises with Asean’s mission of regional autonomy, helping to shield smaller states from great power coercion.
Economic and developmental benefits
Beyond geopolitics, Asean offers transformative economic opportunities for Timor-Leste.
The bloc connects Timor-Leste to a market of over 660 million people and opens access to the Asean Free Trade Area (Afta) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
This integration can catalyse economic diversification, reduce over-reliance on hydrocarbon revenues while boosting trade, tourism, and infrastructure development.
With strategic geographic positioning and resource wealth, Timor-Leste stands to become a more attractive destination for regional investment.
Asean membership also signals political maturity and confidence to investors.
It enables participation in key security and economic dialogues and grants access to support mechanisms such as technical assistance, capacity-building, and development cooperation.
These are essential for strengthening institutions, improving governance, and advancing sustainable development goals.
Aspirations of a young nation
President Jose Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has expressed his hope for Asean to become a bridge for dialogue and if Timor Leste’s accession to the grouping follows this guiding principle, then it might contribute to Asean’s moral leadership, where the most important focus is not on great power rivalry or parochial political interests but first and foremost – on the people-centric economic and social development.
Naturally, the country must overcome domestic challenges from poverty, criminal activities and corruption as well as internal divisions.
Overcoming these could see Timor-Leste emerge as a key transshipment and financial hub as Singapore or even Hong Kong have but failing to resolve these could open the way for ill-intentioned foreign powers with their own agenda — it needs to strengthen its domestic cohesion while being forward thinking and strategic in its foreign policy, and perhaps it could find inspiration from Malaysia which has faced similar challenges.
Ultimately, Timor-Leste’s Asean accession marks the beginning of a new chapter — one that moves the country from isolation to integration, from fragility to regional relevance.
While China seeks influence, Australia seeks security, Asean seeks cohesion, and Timor-Leste seeks development, it is through this regional community that the country may finally find the leverage and stability it has long pursued.
Julia Roknifard is a senior lecturer at the School of Law and Governance at Taylor’s University and lectures at the newly launched programme “Philosophy, Politics, and Economics” (PPE).
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.