From Murray Hunter
The results of the Johor state elections reflected the predictions of many political analysts. Now the reality of what just happened needs to be digested.
Talk had been going around for a long time about Umno and Barisan Nasional becoming the dominant political force once again. Now the nation has to live with this, and the many consequences arising from this result.
BN gained a resounding victory, achieving a two-third majority in the 56-seat Johor state assembly by winning 40 seats (Umno 33, MCA 4, MIC 3). The coalition received 43.11% of the popular vote, up from 40.4% in 2018.
Although Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional coalition made up of Bersatu and PAS garnered 24.04% of the popular vote, the coalition was trounced and could muster only three seats (Bersatu 2, PAS 1). This represents a loss of 9 seats from the 2018 state elections.
Pakatan Harapan, which actually won the state government back in 2018, lost 15 seats, where they are now left with 12 seats.
DAP now has only 10 seats, a loss of four. PKR has only one seat, a loss of six seats, and Amanah one seat, with a loss of five seats. Seven PKR candidates lost their deposits, while four Amanah candidates lost theirs.
Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman’s Muda in its first participation in an election gained one seat in Puteri Wangsa, out of the seven it contested. All 43 Pejuang candidates lost their deposits as did Warisan and Parti Bangsa Malaysia candidates.
55% voter turnout
The 55% voter turnout was one of the lowest in Malaysian electoral history. Only 1.39 million of the 2.6 million registered voters turned out. However, this was almost 100,000 more voters than the 2018 elections, held in conjunction with the federal election.
There are many factors that come into play here. A stand-alone state election is much more low key than a combined federal-state election. Many of the 1.2 million that failed to vote didn’t leave Singapore or their places of work around the peninsula to come and vote.
The 36% voter turnout in the DAP stronghold of Skudai indicates apathy and/or disappointment with political representatives.
The young voters, eligible to vote for the first time, appeared somewhat apathetic or disenchanted with the political process. The fear of Covid still prevails around the country, especially with daily reported cases up around the 33,000 mark.
Pundits claim that a low voter turnout would greatly advantage BN, but this doesn’t really appear to have been the case. The popular PH vote went up from 255,990 in 2018 to 367,525 this time.
Implications for Malay-centric parties
The Johor elections have settled the argument over which is the dominant Malay-centric party. Umno has shown, based on the Johor and Melaka state elections, that it may be able to win outright in the peninsula with its two coalition partners MCA and MIC.
With support from GPS in Sarawak and Umno Sabah, BN can once again become the “natural” government in Malaysia without serious challenge.
However, Umno didn’t win from a position of strength. Umno’s partners in the federal coalition in Putrajaya ran separately and were found wanting against Umno.
Various reasons have been given for BN’s electoral success in Johor. Some say it was Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s ‘good’ job as prime minister, others say it was electioneering by Najib Razak, known as “Bossku” to voters, where Najib became an election issue himself.
The “Bossku” phenomena is a major dilemma for Umno. Rather than celebrating a great electoral win, Umno strategists are now bunkered up trying to determine their next moves. This election has psychologically weakened Ismail’s position.
However, any coup against him would split parliamentary numbers, where any certain outcome is uncertain. Most probably, all efforts will be put into the Umno party elections with the winner taking all. This is certainly going to distract the Umno members of the Cabinet over the next few months.
Politically Muhyiddin Yassin is greatly weakened, being defeated in his own stronghold of Johor. This gives him much less influence federally from now on. Most Bersatu seats are in danger of being lost to Umno in the next general election.
However, PN did manage to get 334,457 or 24% of the vote on a popular basis. Whether PN support can be refocused into winning constituencies in the next general election is a great challenge, particularly to Bersatu.
For PAS, its heartlands are along the East Coast and Kedah. PAS must refocus on holding what seats they have in their own heartland, rather than trying to expand their electoral influence nationally. If PAS doesn’t heed this warning, they could be weaker after the next election.
For Mahathir Mohamad’s Pejuang, the wisest thing would be for him to retire at the end of his parliamentary term and not recontest his Langkawi seat. His son, Mukhriz will have a tough fight in the adjoining seat of Jerlun.
Opposition bloc must think anew
The opposition as a grouping will need to think radically to remain relevant.
By 6.30pm on election night the #Anwarresign and #Anwaribrahimturun hashtags were trending among PKR supporters on social media. The MoU between PH and Ismail technically makes PH a pro-government party within the parliamentary system of governance.
Talk of extending this until July next year, especially after a budget that many believe the opposition should have rejected on principle, has created disappointment and apathy towards PH.
DAP’s loss of Yong Peng to MCA should reinforce the reality of the damage done from the MoU.
Anwar’s insistence of putting himself above the greater cause of the alliance is now leading to accusations of Anwar being a BN “trojan horse” and letting his ego get in front of real party interests.
Within PKR today, there are those who faithfully believe in Anwar and those who are developing a growing disillusionment with him. PKR has already ripped itself apart with the exit of the Azmin Ali group in 2020. The question here is whether PKR could survive another exodus.
The wisdom of accepting Maszlee Malik into PKR has to be questioned when he lost by 2,815 votes to Umno’s Abdul Mutalip Abdul Rahim. Maszlee’s poor performance as education minister should not have been rewarded with candidacy under the PKR banner in a legislative election.
Based on the result in Layang Layang, which is within Maszlee’s parliamentary seat of Simpang Renggam, he is most unlikely to hold the seat at the next general election.
DAP has to be disappointed with the results. It needs to consider what the party must do to return to electoral relevance. Loke Siew Fook has gone on record saying that DAP will work with anyone to form a stable government. Pragmatism will be needed to rebuild a real opposition with DAP as the backbone and mentor.
Plenty of options for parties
DAP can nurture alliances with Muda, Warisan, and elements of other parties that may break away. Such an alliance, or even a new party, would require a policy-based platform rather than the ad hoc approach that PH has pursued to date.
Any MoU with the government is negative to the electorate. Tony Pua’s staunch support for the MoU has backfired on his own integrity.
There are a lot of potential scenarios ahead. Some at this point in time might just be fantasies. However, fantasy has a knack of becoming reality very quickly in politics.
Who would have said after GE13 that Mahathir would lead a PH coalition to victory in GE14, ousting Najib? Who would have said that Muhyiddin Yassin would have been home minister in a PH government?
What is Bersatu’s next course of action? It can become subservient to Umno or go alone and talk to a new coalition. If Umno splits over Ismail’s fall from power, there must be a new coalition to talk to. If PKR splits, there must be a new coalition those who leave can talk to.
These are the options that may prevent Malaysia from going back to the future. A radical realignment of parties and splinters of parties to create a new entity to challenge the old.
As the Zahid-Najib forces prepare to take over Umno and control of the government, it will bring a reaction. While waiting for the unforeseeable, DAP must align the possible today.
It’s time for the opposition to change trajectory or become irrelevant electorally. Opposition groups cannot wait for Anwar to lead PKR into the darkness once again. There must be a viable lifeboat available for splinter groups to create that incentive for them to jump.
Creative thinkers are desperately needed here.
Murray Hunter is an independent researcher and former professor with the Prince of Songkla University and Universiti Malaysia Perlis.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.