By CY Ming

At a media and industry players briefing on Mar 31, Visit Malaysia 2020 secretariat chief Dr Ammar Abd Ghapar said Tourism Malaysia was confident that its forecast of 39% increase in visitor arrivals from 25.9 million in 2017 to 36 million in 2020 was achievable.

Those were brave words indeed considering the fact that Tourism Malaysia has consistently fallen short of visitor arrival targets since 2013.

The target set for 2013 was 26.8 million, but actual arrivals were 25,715,460. The pattern was repeated over the next four years, with 27,437,315 arrivals in 2014 against the 28 million target; 25,721,251 in 2015 against the 29.4 million target; 26,757,392 in 2016 against the 30.5 million target; and 25,948,459 last year against the 31.8 million target.

The target for 2018 is 33.1 million, a 4% increase over the 2017 target but a massive 22.6% jump from actual arrivals. Achieving a 6% increase this year would be quite a feat, as it would mean attracting a record high of 27.5 million visitors.

If we fall short of the target again this year, which is almost certain, will Tourism Malaysia set 34.5 million for 2019 just to be consistent in raising higher targets and disregarding actual arrival figures?

Disturbingly, total visitor arrivals for last year were close to those in 2013 and 2015. We have not been on track to achieving 36 million for 2020 as envisaged under the Malaysia Tourism Transformation Plan which was first announced in 2011.

Will Tourism Malaysia introduce any new measures to promote visitor arrivals or dish out more of the same? What are the contingency plans if politicians go overboard to exploit racial and religious issues in the run-up to the coming general election?

An escalation in hate speech and fear mongering is certain to drive away more tourists and investors from our country. If so, visitor arrivals may even drop below 25 million this year.

CY Ming is an FMT reader.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.