James Chin of the University of Tasmania and Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University warned that a bitter contest between the two coalitions would make it difficult for them to remain partners in Putrajaya.

“You cannot be fighting for control of the state government and be nice to each other at federal level,” Chin told FMT.

As it is, both PH and BN are openly talking about severing ties, he said.

On Saturday, Johor BN declared it was going solo at the next state election, prompting its PH counterpart to announce that it would also vie for all 56 seats.

PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim also signalled that his coalition is prepared to contest every seat in several other states—including Negeri Sembilan, Selangor, Penang and Pahang—if BN presses ahead with a full-scale electoral challenge.

Anwar, who is also the prime minister, said that if other parties choose confrontation, PH would meet the challenge.

Wong warned that if PH and BN resort to attacking each other on the campaign trail, their partnership at the federal level may become untenable.

“It would damage their credibility, and they will be punished by the middle ground.”

Wong, however, said there was an upside to multi-cornered fights, as voters would likely come out to cast their ballots if they believe their party or coalition has a real chance of winning.

He suggested that PH and BN explore a model similar to the one used by Gabungan Rakyat Sabah at the recent Sabah state election, contesting the majority of seats but strategically avoiding a face-off in others.

Such an approach, he said, would enable PH and BN to pool their strengths and field the most ideal candidate in Perikatan Nasional strongholds, while still competing in the majority of seats.

“They might even prepare the ground for the possibility of working together after the election, even if they compete against each other.”

‘Mere noise and rhetoric’

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, however, played down any possibility of tension between the two, dismissing the pronouncements by PH and BN as mere “noise and rhetoric”.

He said PH-BN ties were relatively strong despite the political crisis in Negeri Sembilan, which was sparked by the retraction of support for menteri besar Aminuddin Harun by 14 Umno assemblymen, and the pronouncements in Johor.

Azmi also said PH and Anwar used its recent convention to galvanise support and show that the coalition was ready — with or without BN.

“But I do believe that, at the end of the day, there will be some form of cooperation between BN and PH.”