Chin Yee Mun of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman said PKR had not been able to establish a foothold in Johor even when Pakatan Harapan was at its strongest at the 2022 state election.
“It is obviously an ambitious project. In 2022, PKR contested in 20 seats but was only able to win one seat – Bukit Batu,” he told FMT.
Chin said the 2022 results were a repeat of 2013, when PKR also won that same seat. He said Johor PKR had made headway in 2018, winning five of the 12 seats contested in Johor, but those were different times.
“Bersatu was in PH and the opposition wind was sweeping strongly, particularly when Muhyiddin Yassin, a former Johor menteri besar, was leading the charge,” he said.
Since then, PKR has struggled with Malay voters, and its past strength in mixed or Chinese-majority seats is no longer guaranteed, if DAP’s heavy loss in Sabah last November serves as a lesson.
On Wednesday, Johor PKR chairman Dr Zaliha Mustafa said the party had identified 28 seats it could potentially contest at the next state polls, due by mid-2027.
Zaliha, who is the Sekijang MP, said the party remains open to various possibilities, including three-cornered fights and continued cooperation with PH and Barisan Nasional.
What’s the strategy?
Chin said that by declaring the 28-seat target, Johor PKR was effectively saying it is more or less ready to contest in three-cornered fights.
“Such a decision can probably be a strategic move after considering that BN may play a more dominant role if PH and BN work together in the state election.
“PKR is the incumbent of only one seat and, therefore, may only be allocated one seat if both coalitions work together,” he said.
However, three-cornered fights would be risky, as they could split votes and favour Perikatan Nasional, particularly in Malay seats that Umno won with slim majorities in 2022.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said Johor PKR was merely testing the waters with its Umno-BN counterpart.
“I don’t think BN would give up any of the 40 seats it won in 2022, and this leaves only 16 seats available,” he said.
“If PKR is really adamant on contesting 28 seats, then we are likely to see a three-way contest similar to 2022, when the party won only one seat, and even then, with a very slim majority.”
In the 2022 Johor election, PKR’s Arthur Chiong won the Bukit Batu seat with a 137-vote-majority in a four-way fight against candidates from BN, PN and Warisan.
No seat safe
Azmi said if PKR were to rely on the incumbency formula, it would still face a tough challenge defending Bukit Batu, which has a Chinese electorate of over 53%.
“PKR won that seat largely thanks to DAP supporters, but with DAP struggling after the Sabah polls, I don’t think PKR can count on their voters this time,” he said.
Chin added that in a three-cornered fight, the party risks losing votes to multiple contenders. With Malay voters largely favouring BN, he said, PKR’s chances of retaining the seat are low.