James Chin of the University of Tasmania said Warisan had consistently been among the bigger blocs in the state assembly since first contesting in the 2018 general election.
On Saturday, the party won 25 seats, the second-highest number of seats in the state assembly, with its numbers boosted by Chinese voters swinging to the party from DAP and PKR.
However, Chin said many Chinese voters that abandoned DAP shifted to Warisan because they hoped the party would be able form the state government.
He also said Warisan had underperformed in making its haul of 25 seats on Saturday, as it was only two more than the 23 won in 2020.
He said Warisan now faces a steeper hill to climb as it has been out of the Sabah government for years and lacks access to state resources. “Unless they can double down or find a way to stay in government, it will be a struggle for the next few years,” he told FMT.
Warisan finished four seats behind Gabungan Rakyat Sabah as the polls ended in a hung state assembly.
The party failed to make much headway in Kadazandusun Murut-majority seats, with parties like Parti Bersatu Sabah holding strong and Upko even expanding its number of constituencies.
It lost several key battlegrounds like Kunak, Petagas, Banggi and Moyog.
Nonetheless, Warisan made huge inroads in urban, Chinese-majority and mixed seats, with the party playing a major role in booting DAP out of the state assembly by wresting Luyang, Likas, Sri Tanjong, Tanjong Papat, Elopura and Kapayan.
It also retained Tanjung Aru comfortably and took Api-Api and Inanam, two PKR strongholds.
But analyst Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said the Chinese swing in support may not last as it was likely more due to disgruntlement with PH rather than loyalty to Warisan.
Chinese support in the next federal elections was unlikely to follow the same trend, as what was at stake was different. “They will support PH at the parliamentary level,” he said.
Prior to the state polls, think tank Ilham Centre warned of a swing in Chinese support in urban areas, citing a greater exposure to social media and sentiments pushing against the influence of West Malaysia-based parties.
It said there was an observable mood of “protest” and disappointment on PH’s campaign trail in urban areas, with the community’s gripes largely centred on issues pertaining to the economy, governance and Sabah’s rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963.