The 47th Asean summit meeting brings together leaders of both the global north and south, but Joanne Lin, senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said Trump’s visit is a double-edged sword.
“Trump’s attendance will restore some visibility to the US after years of limited engagement, not just in Trump’s first term; even under Joe Biden, Washington’s presence was sporadic,” she said.
However, the renewed visibility also comes with risk, she said. “His larger-than-life presence will inevitably dominate the headlines and sadly might slightly overshadow some of these meetings.”
Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, and South Korea’s president, Lee Jae Myung, will also attend for the first time, while China will be represented by premier Li Qiang instead of president Xi Jinping. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, will join virtually.
Former senior diplomat Ilango Karuppannan said the summit has become “a battle of optics”.
In the absence of Xi, Trump will be the heavyweight in the frame. “In terms of protocol, presidents are always front and centre, and that image will play very differently in Washington and New York,” said Ilango, a former Malaysian high commissioner to Singapore.
Ilango said imagery of the summit meeting could feed perceptions that Asean is tilting toward the US and the regional bloc must maintain the right image.
He said it was rare for an American president to attend the East Asia Summit, which is typically represented by lower-ranking officials.
“But the Americans are also very smart in this game. Trump has decided to come because he will be the one actually commanding the frame,” he said.
Asean in the driver’s seat
Lin and Ilango both agreed that the real test for Asean is keeping control of the agenda.
Lin said Trump’s presence may bring “political theatre”, but it also opens a rare window for Southeast Asian leaders to hold direct talks on tariffs, supply chains and renewed economic cooperation.
On the other hand, Ilango said the high-profile attendance could also spark renewed competition for influence.
“There will probably be a lot of visits from China coming to the region to show that they are not left behind. America will also try to get its act together,” he said.
Despite the heavyweights in the room, Ilango said the platform still belongs to Asean, as the convener of the East Asia Summit, which brings together leaders of Asean and eight other countries.
“It cannot take place without Asean, and it will not be held outside the region,” he said.
Asean’s role is not about asserting dominance or visibility but has “always been making sure that America and China behave in a predictable and stable manner. Constructive for everyone. So if that happens, that’s good for us.”
The 47th Asean summit and related meetings will also feature leaders from Australia, New Zealand and other partners, alongside a series of bilateral meetings, including possible US-China trade discussions, on the sidelines.