Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said PH should not only consider letting Umno contest seats that were previously held by Bersatu – such as Sungai Acheh, Telok Bahang and Bertam – but should also think about doing the same for seats they currently hold such as Sungai Bakap and Pulau Betong.
PH and Umno should then pool resources to defend these seats against Perikatan Nasional as it would be tougher for incumbents from both coalitions to defend their seats due to the “green wave” phenomenon.
“The way I see it, the green wave is still going to persist (in the coming state elections). The effect of the green wave is still going to be there because I don’t see it going away or subsiding,” Azmil told FMT.
“PH has no option but to entrust Umno with the Malay seats (in Penang). For all its faults, Umno has a legacy, brand name and an extensive grassroots network that reaches every part of the Malay heartland. The same cannot be said for Amanah, PH’s default party in Malay-majority areas.”
The “green wave” refers to the unexpected gains made by PN in the 2022 general election when it won 74 seats, with PAS contributing 43 and Bersatu 31.
Another analyst from USM, Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, said Umno should fight it out with PN in Malay-dominated seats as PH “would probably be trashed”, citing the coalition’s loss of the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat to PN in the last general election (GE15).
He also said it would be sportsmanlike for PH to give up some seats to Umno as PH and Barisan Nasional had decided to contest in the state elections as a bloc.
Fauzi suggested that seats previously held by Bersatu, such as Sungai Acheh, Bertam and Telok Bahang, should be given to Umno to contest. Even Seberang Jaya, which is a Malay-majority seat, should be open for negotiations between PH and Umno, he said.
Both analysts were commenting on Penang PH chief Chow Kon Yeow’s statement last Saturday that overlapping claims by BN and PH over seat negotiations in 15-Malay majority constituencies in the state would be resolved soon.
Chow, who is also the Penang chief minister, had previously said that PH would contest the seats it won in the previous state polls as no incumbents were willing to give up their seats. PH currently has 33 seats in the state while Umno has two – Permatang Berangan and Sungai Dua.
PN currently has a single seat in Penaga, which was won by PAS in the 14th general election (GE14) in 2018.
The remaining four seats – Sungai Acheh, Seberang Jaya, Bertam, and Telok Bahang – were vacated in March after their Bersatu representatives were sacked under the state’s anti-hopping law.
Addressing potential PH grassroots discontent
Asked how PH should quell potential discontent from grassroots members who have been working on the ground in these constituencies, Azmil suggested that PH leaders point out the undesirable scenario of PN winning these Malay seats.
“PH can ask their supporters: Would you rather have PN or PAS to be (in control of these seats) or do you want Umno?
“I think PH supporters may choose Umno. So if you put it in that context, I think it would make people (PH grassroots) realise that at least for the time being, (they) should focus on the immediate threat, which is the ‘green wave’, and they have to work together (with Umno),” he added.
Meanwhile, Fauzi suggested that national PH leaders negotiate with Umno to get seats from other states that would be having elections, such as Negeri Sembilan, in exchange for seats in Penang.
“I know PH is going to be bitter about seat allocations, but it is the norm in a democracy, especially in a coalition government. We have to remember that PH has become the main partner in the unity government through Umno’s support as well,” he added.
Six states – PH-controlled Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang as well as PAS-led Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah – will hold elections after July.