Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said the party-hopping MPs are now considered a liability. “These party hoppers are not safe. In the Melaka and Johor elections, only one was re-elected in Johor. The rest were punished by voters,” he told FMT.
The sole party-hopper who won re-election was Alwiyah Talib of Bersatu in Endau, Johor. She had jumped from Umno in May 2018.
After the 2018 general election, 15 Umno MPs joined Bersatu to be part of the government. PKR took in independent MPs Larry Sng (Julau) and Jugah Muyang (Lubok Antu). Sng later left to form Parti Bangsa Malaysia while Jugah became independent.
In March 2020 a group of PKR MPs joined forces with Bersatu, Barisan Nasional and PAS in what was called the “Sheraton Move” to topple the Pakatan Harapan government after 22 months in power.
The defections led to Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin becoming the eighth prime minister.
Azmi said party hoppers who landed in PBM and Bersatu would have an uphill task in seeking re-election.
He made an exception for economic affairs minister Mustapa Mohamed who has held the Jeli seat for five terms.
Mustapa, commonly known as Tok Pa, was Jeli MP from 1995 but lost the seat to Apandi Mohamad of PAS in 1999 before reclaiming it in the 2004 and following general elections.
“If he decides to defend the Jeli seat, he has a good chance of winning because Tok Pa is synonymous with Jeli,” he said.
Another analyst, Anantha Raman Govindasamy of Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said 90% of party-hoppers would be rejected by voters. Only a “lucky” 10% or less were likely to be re-elected.
“Even then it would depend on personality politics and the coalitions formed,” he said.
He added that urban voters were more likely to punish party hoppers compared to voters in semi-urban and rural areas due to the elected representatives being regarded as godfathers in certain communities.
However, Anantha said it was still too soon to predict accurately as there were many other factors to consider such as the political pacts formed, the candidates put forward by the parties and multi-cornered fights which could split votes.
Party-hopping by elected representatives has been outlawed by the anti-hopping law which came into effect on Oct 5.