Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said the reality was that PAS could lose many of the seats it won in the last election if it stuck with PN and went head-to-head with Umno.

However, he said, the Islamic party would not want to be seen as ditching PN just to improve its chances in GE15.

“Umno is in a better position to face GE15 compared with PAS. If PAS wants to remain in government, of course it would be better for it to be with Umno because of the party’s clout among the Malays.

“While there is a possibility that PAS could abandon PN, I believe it is more likely to stick with PN for the election,” he said, adding this was because PAS could still look towards working with Umno after GE15.

He was commenting on Umno’s ultimatum to PAS to choose between it and PN in facing GE15.

Last week, Muhyiddin, who is PN’s chairman declared that PAS would stick with the coalition in the coming polls and that there was “no issue” about the party wanting to leave.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said PAS would likely resist taking sides and continue its effort to bring the two parties together.

“It wants Malay-Muslim unity. PAS was successful in doing this in 2020, so it won’t want to change the formula,” he said.

Chin said PAS might want to let the situation play out on its own.

“Even at the height of its disagreement with Bersatu, where Muhyiddin had thrown a couple of ‘tantrums’, PAS was still willing to talk to Umno.

“I suspect that PAS understands that Bersatu is almost ‘finished’ on the ground, so PAS will attempt to negotiate the best ‘package’ for itself with Umno,” he said.

Chin also said even if PAS entered GE15 with PN, it was likely that it would gravitate towards Umno and Barisan Nasional if it won the election.