RM40bil lockdown package too small, say economists

RM40bil lockdown package too small, say economists

Geoffrey Williams says wage subsidy should be extended further, while Barjoyai Bardai opines that more packages will be needed should the lockdown prolong.

An extended wage subsidy programme will increase disposable income and boost consumer spending, says economist Geoffrey Williams.
PETALING JAYA:
Economists say the RM40 billion Pemerkasa Plus aid package announced by the government yesterday is too small to effectively help people and businesses tide over the lockdown.

Malaysia University of Science and Technology’s Geoffrey Williams said the movement control orders (MCOs) announced this year were projected to cost RM57.9 billion, citing Putrajaya’s estimated daily costs.

This total lockdown was estimated to cost at least RM33.6 billion for the two weeks, followed by RM15.5 billion for the four weeks under Phase 2 of the MCO.

With only RM5 billion of direct fiscal injection, he told FMT that there were too many “small and meaningless” grants and credits which were short term and insignificant, such as the RM100 for singles, and micro-credit loans.

Geoffrey Williams.

Loans still have to be repaid, he said, adding that he would have preferred if more money was spent on the wage subsidy programme, which will only be extended by a month under the package.

“The wage subsidy should last for the expected period of the lockdown and recovery, which is longer than a month. This will support disposable income and consumer spending and help demand, which is what companies need.

“It should be phased out as the economy recovers later in the year and not stopped abruptly,” he said.

Williams said he would have preferred B40 and M40 households to be given up to RM1,500 a month in handouts until December, since herd immunity is projected to only be achieved then.

He said this would cost Putrajaya about RM60 billion but would benefit 2.9 million households in each category.

While acknowledging the necessity to have funds directed towards public healthcare infrastructure in view of the worsening pandemic, he said there was very little allocated elsewhere.

Barjoyai Bardai.

Universiti Tun Abdul Razak’s Barjoyai Bardai said the package made sense, citing the one-off handout for taxi and bus drivers and increased Bantuan Prihatin Rakyat aid as good moves from Putrajaya.

But he, too, felt that the package was too small, saying it would require more than RM5 billion in fiscal injection to help the estimated 8.5 million households in the nation.

He told FMT the increased aid for households should be enough, unless the lockdown prolongs beyond two weeks.

“But after this, when they progress to Phase 2 and 3 of the MCO, they should be announcing more packages, especially if the lockdown is prolonged,” he said.

Bumiputera Retailers Organisation president Ameer Ali Mydin said the government has listened to the needs of the small businesses and B40.

Ameer Ali Mydin.

“We want to thank the Perikatan Nasional-led government for helping retailers affected by the present situation,” he said.

However, he hoped that the moratorium for SMEs would be automatic rather than opt-in and would be extended to the end of the year.

“It should be opt-out rather than opt-in. We also request that the moratorium is on a cost-of-fund basis, whereby banks forego their profits from the loan for these three months.”

Ameer also said that mid-tier and even bigger companies which have been affected should be included in the loan moratorium.

“The rakyat appreciates that our ministers and deputies have taken a three-month pay cut. I hope the top executives of our GLCs and banks who are making billions in profits will also take a pay cut and contribute towards the Covid-19 fund,” he said.

He also hoped the government would increase the utility bill discount from 10% to 50%.

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