This is because a greater proportion of the loans risk becoming delinquent when the facility ends on June 30, especially if economic growth remains subdued.
Moody’s said that as at Feb 26, the five largest Malaysian banks had reported results for 2020, with Maybank Banking Bhd (A3 stable, a32), Public Bank Bhd (A3 stable, a3), RHB Bank (A3 stable, baa2) and CIMB Group (Baa1 stable) each reporting an increase in loans with reduced or deferred instalments, or loans benefiting from pandemic-related RA.
The proportion of loans under RA for these banks increased to 13% on average in February from 11% in November 2020.
Hong Leong Bank’s (A3 stable, a3) loans under RA declined to 7% in January from 8% in November 2020.
“The increase in retail loans under RA is consistent with increased unemployment and underemployment reducing borrowers’ incomes,” Moody’s said in its latest sectoral comment.
“The increase is being driven by take-up among retail borrowers and vulnerable population segments, including the so-called B40, or households whose incomes are at the bottom 40% of the population.”
Although the finance ministry projects that unemployment will fall to 3.5% in 2021 from 4.8% at year-end 2020, it will still be higher than the pre-pandemic 3.2% at year-end 2019.
In addition to a higher unemployment rate, the time-related underemployment rate also rose to 2.4% at year-end 2020 from 1.1% a year earlier because of shorter operating hours and job rotation among workers.
Moody’s said it forecast that Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will rebound to around 6% in 2021 and remain high over 2022-23, after last year’s GDP contracted 5.6% as pandemic lockdowns disrupted businesses and slowed the job market.
However, a new lockdown in January exacerbates the risk to asset quality and economic growth in 2021.
“RA supports borrowers whose repayment capacity is affected by pandemic-related disruptions to their incomes,” it said.
“Banks tailor RA to a borrower’s needs. B40 households and micro-enterprises can defer monthly repayments for three months or reduce repayments by 50% for six months under the government’s Targeted Repayment Assistance scheme announced in November 2020.”
It said non-performing loan formation has slowed for most banks because loans under RA are not classified as impaired.
As of year-end 2020, gross impaired loan ratios fell across the five banks compared with a year earlier, with the exception of CIMB Group, whose exposure to the oil and gas sector contributed to a deterioration in its asset quality, it said.
“We expect asset quality to deteriorate as support measures to borrowers gradually expire. The extent of the migration to non-performing loans will depend on the pace of the economic recovery in the second half of this year.”
Nonetheless, it said, Malaysian banks still have strong capitalisation and loan-loss coverage ratios to buffer losses.
On average, the five banks’ Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was stable at around 14.4% at year-end 2020 compared with 14.3% a year earlier, while the average loan-loss coverage ratio improved to 148% from 94% as a result of efforts to front-load provisions.
“The banks’ proactive provisioning will prevent a surge in credit costs if, as we expect, asset quality deteriorates this year,” it said.